Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
studies have shown that total population will reach the peak around 2030, and then
begin to gradually decline and thus enter a negative growth phase. After 2015,
China's working-age population will decline and labor supply in China will
gradually decline in the next 20 years.
According to statistics report released by National Bureau of Statistics, the
proportion of the added value of first, second and tertiary industry to GDP was
10.2 %, 46.9 %, and 42.9 % in 2001. In comparison to 1990, the proportion of
primary industry decreased by 16.9 %, while the secondary industry and tertiary
industry increased by 5.6 % and 11.4 % respectively. Overall, China's industrial
structure changes in the past 20 years sustained the main changing characteristics
since the 1970s. In other words, the proportion of primary industry declined, the
secondary industry consolidated its position, and the tertiary industry significantly
increased. In addition, the industrial structure will be further optimized in the
future.
With the continuous development of global economy, the demand for resources
and energies will continue to grow. Supply-demand balance of resources and
energy determines the price of energies and resources, such as oil, natural gas, and
coal. According to China Statistical Yearbook, in 2009, China's total energy
production was 2.75 billion tons; however, the consumption has reached 3.07
billion tons. There was an obvious gap between consumption and demand.
Meanwhile, coal and oil accounted for a large share in China's total energy pro-
duction, and the percentage of coal and oil was 70.4 and 17.9 % correspondingly.
While the hydro-power, nuclear power and wind power is relatively slow growing
and only accounts for 7.8 % of total energy production. However, with the con-
straints of resources and energy, the impacts of resources and energy on human
social-economic development will become more and more obvious. According to
the forecasts of International Energy Agency and the U.S. Department of Energy,
despite global demand for energy resources continuously grew between 2005 and
2030, the overall supply and demand will be close to equilibrium in the future.
3.1.3.2 Scenarios Design
According to the characteristics of social-economic development in the past
30 years in China, we design three social-economic development scenarios, i.e.
BAU, REG and CES. BAU scenario is designed according to the economic
development process and the structural characteristics in China combining the
factors with most possible changes such as population, factor endowments and
technological advances. This scenario reflects likely changing trends of social-
economic development, and also provides a reference which can be compared with
other scenarios. REG scenario is designed to explore land use changes under
accelerating social-economic development. CES scenario is designed to simulate
the possible trends of land use changes under the effect of increasing environ-
mental pressure.
