Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
3.1.1.2 Socio-Economic Data
Socio-economic data include total population, population density and growth rate
of per capita income, proportion of agricultural population, urbanization ratio,
GDP and price index of oil, gas, coal, and hydropower from 1990 to 2010. Among
them, population, GDP, population density, proportion of agricultural population
and urbanization ratio are derived from the Statistical Yearbook of China and the
provincial statistical data. Price index of natural gas, coal, and hydropower are
mainly extracted from the Energy Statistics Yearbook. Average household income
growth ratio, which reaches about 11.24 % from 1990 to 2010, is obtained by
looking for literatures and other relevant materials.. Population, average income
growth ratio and commodity market prices are the main parameters of AgLU
module and the relevant specific data will be used in the section of scenario design.
3.1.2 Methods
3.1.2.1 GCAM Model
GCAM model is an integrated assessment model that focuses on energy and
agriculture sectors. It is a partial-equilibrium model that designed to examine long-
term, large-scale changes in global and regional energy system where the char-
acteristics of existing capital stocks are not the dominant factor in determining the
dynamics of energy system. The markets in GCAM are defined for oil, gas, coal,
biomass, carbon, and agricultural products. The goal of land use allocation is
achieved through AgLU module that drove by factors of population, labor pro-
ductivity growth and the price of resources in the market. Besides, through
incorporation of the ERB module, emissions of greenhouse gases can be calculated
(Brenkert et al.
2003
).
3.1.2.2 Land Allocation
Land allocation diagram shows how land is allocated among alternative land uses.
Determination of land use is based on maximizing economic return at each
location. Per hectare profit is equal to revenue (per hectare yield multiply price
received) subtract production cost (per hectare yield times per unit of output non-
land cost). This relationship is shown in Eq. (
3.1
).
pr
i
;
l
;
m
;
p
¼ y
i
;
l
;
m
;
p
P
i
;
l
;
m
G
i
;
l
;
m
ð
3
:
1
Þ
where pr
i
;
l
;
m
;
p
is the economic return of the land as a profit rate ($/ha
yr); y
i
;
l
;
m
;
p
is
yield per hectare for land use i in region j at location p (calories/ha); P
i
;
l
;
m
is the
market price for the product produced by land use i ($/calories or $/m
3
). G
i
;
l
;
m
is
