Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
In the
Sect. 3.1
of this chapter, we choose China as the study area, and explore
possible land use change trends based on the AgLU module and ERB module of
global change assessment model (GCAM model). In the second section, scenarios
of future LUCC in China are simulated. This study predicts the future structure of
land use/cover on the basis of GCAM and econometric model with the socio-
economic factors as the driving forces. The future spatial pattern of land use/cover
in China is simulated with the Dynamics of Land System (DLS) under the Busi-
ness as Usual (BAU) scenario, Rapid Economic Growth (REG) scenario and
Cooperate Environmental Sustainability scenario (CES). Last but not least, LUCC
data is reclassified to simulate regional impacts of LUCC on climate in the third
section. We combined land cover data with land use data to generate high accuracy
underlying surface information that can be applied in climatic simulation.
3.1 Possible Trends of Land Use Changes in China
LUCC is one of the core research focuses of International Geosphere-Biosphere
Programme (IGBP) and the International Human Dimension Programme (IHDP)
on Global Environmental Change.
Scholars conducted a lot of studies on LUCC to reveal the relationship of land,
environment, population and social development. In this study, we aim to investigate
how LUCC affect CO
2
emissions and tried to reveal the influential mechanism of
LUCC to CO
2
emissions. To achieve this goal, we simulate land use changes with
AgLU module of GCAM model, and then project CO
2
emissions with ERB module
based on the simulated land use change. The comparison of scenarios' results indicated
that CES scenario reflects sustainable development and is more suitable for devel-
opment in China. Scenario-based analysis provide more suitable development route of
China towards sustainable development based on future structural change of land uses.
3.1.1 Data
3.1.1.1 Land Use Data
We use TM/ETM+ images from 1990 to 2010 as data source, which are provided
by the Resources and Environment Data Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences
(CAS) (Liu et al.
2003
). The Landsat TM/ETM+ data are further grouped into six
aggregated classes of land cover, we use the five types land use: cultivated land,
forest land, grassland, bare land and built-up areas including urban areas. Culti-
vated land includes paddy and dry farming land. Forest land includes timberland,
shrub and others (e.g., orchards). Grassland includes dense, moderate and sparse
grassland. Bare land includes sandy land, Gobi, Salina, wetland, bare soil, bare
rock and others (such as alpine desert and tundra). Built-up land includes urban
areas, rural settlements and others (such as roads and airports).
