Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
L
ca
¼ L
c
½
X
i
2
SAGECROPS¼c
H
ia
=
X
a
2
AEZS
X
Pi
Q
ia
H
ia
Pi
Q
ia
H
ia
H
ia
i
2
SAGEROPS¼c
c
2
LANDUSE; i
2
SAGECROPS; a
2
AEZS
:
ð
2
:
19
Þ
where L
ca
is the land rent accrued to the land use sector c in AEZ a; L
c
is the land
rent of the land use sector c, with no AEZ distinction; P
i
is the per-ton price of
SAGE's land use type i; Q
ia
is the production (ton) of SAGE's land use type i in
AEZ a; and H
ia
is the harvest area of SAGE's land use type i in AEZ a. The
P
operator means to aggregate over the disaggregated land use type i to
i
2
SAGECROPS
the corresponding aggregated land use sector c. Note that we assume the per-ton
land production price P
i
is homogenous across the AEZs.
2.3.3 Scenarios
The Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) explored a range of technological,
socioeconomic, and policy futures that could lead to particular concentration
pathways and magnitudes of climate change, which is represented by the RCPs.
The RCPs include four different scenarios (Table
2.2
), i.e., one mitigation scenario
leading to a very low forcing level (RCP2.6), two medium stabilization scenarios
(RCP4.5/RCP6), and one very high baseline emission scenarios (RCP8.5), all of
which could be obtained with different combinations of economic, technological,
demographic, policy, and institutional futures. The development of the RCPs in the
first phase allows climate modelers to proceed with experiments in parallel to the
development of emission and socioeconomic scenarios, expediting the overall
scenario development process (Moss et al.
2010
). Coupled carbon-cycle climate
models can then as well calculate associated emission levels (which can be
compared to the original emissions of the IAMs) (Hibbard et al.
2007
).
Two important characteristics of RCPs are reflected in their names. The word
''representative'' indicates that each of the RCPs represents a large set of scenarios
in the literatures. In fact, as a set, the RCPs should be compatible with the full
range of emissions scenarios available in the current scientific literatures, with and
without the climate policy. The words ''concentration pathway'' means to
emphasize that these RCPs are internally consistent sets of projections of the
components of radiative forcing that are used in subsequent phases rather than the
final new and fully integrated scenarios, i.e., they are not a complete package of
socioeconomic, emission, and climate projections. The use of the word
''concentration'' instead of ''emissions'' also emphasizes that concentrations are
used as the primary product of the RCPs and designed as inputs for climate models
(Wu et al.
2013
).
