Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
2.3 Global Models Combining Emission Scenarios
with Land Use Changes
The land use simulation model is an important tool to analyze the LUCC, which
plays a key role in influencing the global warming. However, there have been very
few global LUCC simulation models, especially the models that can be used to
analyze the interaction among the socioeconomic development, climate change,
and LUCC. The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and the GTAP-AEZ
model are two models that take account of the influence of social economy and
climate change at the global scale, but they may have some parameter errors due to
the rough parameter setting. This study aims to compare the simulation results
obtained with the GCAM model and GTAP-AEZ model and optimize their
parameters according to the specific conditions of China. First, we simulated the
land use structure in China in 2010 with the two models and compared the sim-
ulation results with the real one. Second, we calibrated these parameters of models
according to the China's national conditions and implemented the simulation
again. The result indicates the calibrated GCAM can provide more accurate
simulation result of land use, which can provide significant reference information
for the land use planning and policy formulation to mitigate the climate change in
China.
2.3.1 Overview of Global LUCC Simulation Models
Humans have transformed significant portions of the Earth's land surface,
10-15 % of which is currently dominated by agricultural crop or urban-industrial
areas, and 6-8 % is pasture (Vitousek et al.
1997
).These land use changes have
important implications for future climate changes, and consequently, great
implications for subsequent land use changes (Deng et al.
2013
; Nunes and Auge
1999
; Turner
1994
). Climate change and land use change are both global driving
forces of environmental change, and the impact assessments generally show that
interactions between them can lead to serious challenges to the provision of
ecosystems services. Besides, in many cases it is impossible to determine the
impacts of climate change without consideration of LUCC. LUCC is a widespread,
significant, and accelerating process, and it has been one of the research cores of
the international programmes, such as the International Geosphere-Biosphere
Programme (IGBP) and the Global Environmental Change Human Dimensions
Programme (IHDP) and is also one of the global environmental research focuses
and cutting-edge issues (Liu and Deng
2010
). LUCC is driven by human activities,
and in many cases it also leads to changes that impact the humans, therefore,
LUCC modeling is a critical way for formulating effective environmental policies
and management strategies (Jiang et al.
2012
). Understanding the role of land use
change in the global environmental change requires the analysis of historical land
