Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
Chapter 2
Land Use Change Dynamics Model
Compatible with Climate Models
Jinyan Zhan, Jiyuan Liu, Yingzhi Lin, Feng Wu and Enjun Ma
Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) is an important part of the global environmental
change, which has always been the scientific hot spot. There are two primary
factors that contribute to climate change: land use change and greenhouse gas
emission (Kalnay and Cai 2003 ). This chapter focuses on the Land Use Change
Dynamics (LUCD) model which can be compatible with climatic models,
including three sub-modules, namely economic module, vegetation change mod-
ule, and agent-based module.
Firstly, the economic module is capable of estimating the demand of land use
changes in economic activities and maximizing economic utility. In this sense,
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling approach can include land as a
production factor into the economic module. Second, vegetation change module
provides the probability of vegetation change driven by climate change. The Agro-
ecological Zone (AEZ) model is supposed as the optimal option for constructing
the vegetation change module because it is naturally correlated with AEZs facil-
itating the coupling of economic module and vegetation change module. Third, the
agent-based module identifies if the land use change demand and vegetation
change can be realized and provides the land use change simulation results, which
are the underlying surfaces needed by Regional Climate Models (RCMs). By
importing the RCMs' simulation results of climate change and providing the
simulation results of land use change for RCMs, the LUCD model would be
compatible with RCMs.
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