Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
control compared to that under REG scenarios, in particular, the shrinkage of forest
is well controlled in these regions. By comparison, built-up land in small-medium
cities still expands dispersedly, but the expansion speed is obviously restrained.
6.2.3 Impacts of Future Land use Change on Regional
Temperature in Southern Jiangsu Province
Based on the simulation results of future land use change in Southern Jiangsu
province, the WRF model was used to simulate the impacts of land use change on
regional climate change under different scenarios. The underlying surface data
were first generated through up-scaling and reclassifying the simulation results of
land use change according to the requirement of WRF model. The static under-
lying surface data in the WRF model were then replaced with the dynamic ones in
2010 and 2050 under REG scenario and CES scenario, thereafter future regional
climate change was simulated and finally the climate effects of different under-
lying surfaces were analyzed (Fig.
6.8
).
The simulation results indicate that the changing trends of monthly average
temperatures under different scenarios are consistent on the whole. The highest
monthly average temperatures all appear in June, July, and August, and the lowest
ones all appear in November, January, and February. This result shows that the
changes of underlying surface do not affect monthly temperature change trend; it
only affects the values of average temperature. There is significant difference on
monthly average temperatures during different periods under different scenarios.
The simulation results indicate that regional monthly average temperature in 2010
under CES scenario is the lowest on the whole, while that in 2050 under REG
scenario is the highest. Besides, monthly average temperature in 2010 under REG
scenario is slightly higher than in 2050 under CES scenario. In addition, there are
also some differences in monthly average temperatures between different under-
lying surfaces during different periods. Overall, the greatest difference in monthly
average temperatures appears in summer, while there is no significant difference in
winter, with that in January being the slightest.
The simulation results indicate that there are significant impacts of the under-
lying surface on the spatial pattern of monthly average temperature under different
scenarios, especially in 2050 under REG scenario and in 2010 under CES scenario
(Fig.
6.9
). Figure
6.9
a and b suggest that there is no significant difference between
the spatial pattern of monthly average temperature on the underlying surfaces
under REG scenario and CES scenario in 2010, and monthly average temperature
under REG scenario is only slightly higher than that under REG scenario. How-
ever, Fig.
6.9
c and d indicate that the regions with high temperature in 2050 under
REG scenario are much wider than that under CES scenario, especially around the
center of big cities such as Nanjing, Zhenjiang, Suzhou, and Wuxi. According to
the comparison of results between monthly average temperature in 2050 under
