Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
MYi ¼ f
ð
...
;
x
i
;
...
Þ
f
ð
...
;
x
t
1
;
...
Þ
¼f
ð
Mxi
Þ
ð
6
:
1
Þ
i
where, MYi is the change area of land useYi, x
i
and x
t
i
are the value of inde-
pendent variables in time t and t
1 respectively, and Mx is the changed value of
independent variables.
6.2.2 Results
6.2.2.1 Scenario Analysis of Future Land use in Southern Jiangsu
Province
Future land use conditions in Southern Jiangsu province are simulated under two
scenarios in this part (Fig.
6.7
). After 30 years' development under the reform and
opening up policy in China, the Southern Jiangsu province has achieved rapid
socioeconomic progress. Meanwhile, resources and environment in Southern Ji-
angsu province are also under tremendous pressure and have become increasingly
prominent in the process of rapid economic development. Particularly, farmland
resources in this area are facing significant stress of reduction with rapid urban
expansion. Therefore, the development of Southern Jiangsu province is facing new
opportunities and challenges. In this context, this part sets future land use scenarios
as REG scenario and CES scenario for the study area. The core of REG scenario is
that land use demands have the priority in land use change. Land use change in
Southern Jiangsu province has served the purpose of economic development in the
past 30 years; therefore, it can be considered that land use scenario in Southern
Jiangsu province was REG scenario in the past 30 years. The core of CES scenario
is to achieve coordination between economic development and environmental
protection. Therefore, the purpose of land use in CES scenario is to realize the
transformation of economic development so as to protect natural resources and
environment by sacrificing the speed of economic development rationally.
This study simulates land use change in Southern Jiangsu province during 2010
to 2050 under REG scenario and CES scenario with DLS model (Fig.
6.6
). The
result under REG scenario suggests that built-up land expansion in 2010 mainly
concentrates on the core urban areas of Nanjing, Zhenjiang, Suzhou, Wuxi, and
Changzhou, which is consistent with the trend of current land use change in
Southern Jiangsu province. While the simulation result under CES scenario indi-
cates that built-up land will expand dispersedly in the whole study area, including
the main urban areas of Nanjing, Zhenjiang, Suzhou, Wuxi, and Changzhou will
be restrained to some degree.
The simulation result in year 2050 indicates that there is still a great demand of
economic development for the land resource under REG scenario due to a high
speed of development in Southern Jiangsu province. Built-up land will expand most
obviously around the main urban areas of Nanjing, Zhenjiang, Suzhou, Wuxi, and
Changzhou, where the area of cultivated land and forests will further decrease.
