Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
5.2.3 Scenario Design
Based on the characteristics of socialeconomic development in the past 30 years,
we design two kinds of socialeconomic development scenarios, that is, REG
scenario and CES scenario. Among the two scenarios, the social and economic
development process such as population, factor endowments, and technological
advances are all taken into account in Loess Plateau. Under the REG scenario, it
assumes that the reforms will be put forward quickly and smoothly, the role of
market in the allocation of resources will be enhanced obviously, structural
adjustment will be vigorously promoted, and the economic growth pattern will
make progress. CES scenario mainly considers that it is developed with slower
urbanization, slow recovering of the world economy, serious trade protection, slow
export growth, higher international energy prices, restricted energy imports, slow
progress in system reform, and slow technological innovation and efficiency
improvement.
5.2.4 Land Cover Changes from 2010 to 2050
in the Semiarid Grassland Area of China
This study simulates the land cover of the semiarid grassland area of China from
2010 to 2050 under two kinds of scenarios by DLS model, and the robust of the
DLS model has been proven through investigation, so the simulation results is
trustworthy. The simulation results illustrate that the spatial distribution of land
cover in the study area has no disruptive changes from 2010 to 2050, but the
changing ratio will gradually slow down. The analysis on land cover change
between different periods indicates that the conversion types are mainly dominated
by the conversion between cropland and grassland, but the tendency and scale of
the major land cover changes are various under different scenarios.
Under the CES scenario, the grassland cover shows an increasing trend.
Although the forestry area will rise in some parts of the study area to some extent,
the total forestry area will show a slight downward trend from 2010 to 2050.
Maybe the harsh natural conditions restrict the forestry area expansion, and it is
notable that the largest part of the newly increased forest cover is shrubland.
Additionally, the CES scenario takes the Green for Grain project into account,
which promotes the growth of grassland area and the decrease in the cropland area.
In the period of 2010-2030, the grassland will grow by 4.8 %, and it will increase
4.4 % during the period of 2030-2050. Most of the increased grasslands are
converted from cropland, and are mainly distributed in the Shanxi Province,
southern Shaanxi Province, southeast of Gansu Province, and some areas of
Ningxia. As for the cropland, it will reduce by 22.6 9 10
3
km
2
from 2010 to 2030,
and by about 19.8 9 10
3
km
2
in the period of 2030-2050. Barren or sparsely
vegetated land is another kind of land cover which is mainly converted to
