Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
Fig. 4.6 Changing trends of total cultivated land area in Northeast China during 2010-2030
under the three scenarios
4.2.2.2 Influence of Future Cultivated Land Change on the Land
Surface Energy Balance
The simulation under the three scenarios all indicate that the average latent heat flux
in Northeast China shows a decreasing trend, while the average sensible heat flux
shows an increasing trend, but both of them show some regional heterogeneity
(Fig.
4.7
). Compared to 2010, the latent heat flux in 2030 will decrease by
0.05-0.07 W/m
2
on average and show a decreasing trend on average. The latent heat
flux will decrease slightly in most part of the study area. It will decrease significantly
in only a few regions, such as the western part of Jilin Province and southern part of
Heilongjiang Province, where a lot of cultivated land will change into urban and
built-up land, with a decrement of approximately 10 W/m
2
on average. While the
latent heat flux will increase obviously in the northeast part of Inner Mongolia
Autonomous Region and the eastern boundary regions of Heilongjiang Province and
Jilin Province, where the cultivated lands occupy a large fraction of the total land
area, and the cultivated land will mainly convert into forests.
The sensible heat flux in 2030 will show an increasing trend on the whole
compared to that in 2010, with the average value increasing by 0.06-0.07 (Fig.
4.8
).
The simulation result indicates that the sensible heat flux will increase slightly in
most part of the study area, with the increment of approximately 0.3 W/m
2
. The
simulation results under the three scenarios suggest that the sensible heat flux will
increase most obviously in the northern part of Great Khingan Mountains and Lesser
Khingan Mountains, where a lot of cultivated land will change into urban and built-
