Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
114°0' 0" E
121°0'0" E
128°0'0" E
135°0'0" E
Inne r Mongolia
Heilongj iang
Jili n
Li ao ning
Cu lt ivat ed l and
0
250
500
km
114°0' 0" E
121°0'0" E
128°0'0" E
135°0'0" E
Fig. 4.5 Location of Northeast China. Northeast China mainly covers Heilongjiang Province, Jilin
Province, Liaoning Province, and the southeastern part of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region
indispensable to most essential human activities and provides the basis for agri-
cultural and forest production, recreation and settlement, etc. In this study, the
potential biogeophysical effects of cultivated land change were analyzed on the
base of the scenario analysis on the land use change and simulation of climate
change with WRF model.
4.2.1 Data and Methodology
The simulation is implemented based on the land cover data and forcing data under
different scenarios. First, the scenario analysis is carried out on the future LUCC in
Northeast China, which provides the time series underlying surface data for the
simulation with WRF model. Three scenarios of land use change are designed
according to characters of socioeconomic development in the study area, and the
structural change of land use is simulated with the module of Agriculture and Land
Use in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), with the socioeconomic
factors as the driving force. Thereafter, the future spatial pattern of land cover during
2010-2030 is simulated with the DLS model (Deng et al.
2008
), and finally the climate
effects of the land use change is analyzed based on simulation with WRF model.
4.2.1.1 Scenario Design of Land Use Change
Three scenarios, including the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario, Rapid Economic
Growth (REG) scenario, and Coordinated Environmental Sustainability (CES)
