Geography Reference
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grain yield, indirectly change the income of peasants, and consequently alter their
production activities. In addition, since different crops have different adaptive
capacities to climate change, which will greatly influence the peasants' choice of
the kinds of crops and consequently lead to more serious imbalance of the plan-
tation structure. For example, in the middle and western part of Northeast China,
where one of major crops is the rice, when the temperature increases and the
precipitation decreases, the local peasants may replace the rice with other crops or
offset the impacts of climate change on the rice by using more fertilizers or
irrigating the crops with more water. So the grain production in Northeast China
has some potential to adapt to the temperature rise, and it is of great significance to
alleviate the negative impacts of the temperature rise on grain production and
guarantee food security in Northeast China to give full play to this potential.
This study has mainly aimed at the simulation and prediction of the change of
temperature and precipitation caused by the cultivated land reclamation in the future.
In order to forecast the climate change in the future more accurately, it is necessary to
quantitatively analyze the changing trends of the temperature and precipitation, and
comprehensively take into account the future changes of the monsoon, general
atmospheric circulation, change of other land use types, etc. in the climate model and
data analysis. Therefore, there is still something to explore in the future researches.
First, the regional climate change is caused by various factors, including not only the
human activities, but also the natural factors such as the solar activity. Besides, there
are also various human activities that influence the regional climate change in
Northeast China, but only the cultivated land reclamation has been taken into account
in this study, so more influencing factors should be included in the future research.
Second, there are some uncertainties in the simulation. Due to those influenced
factors, the effects of some of them on the climate change may not be captured in the
simulation analysis, which will lead to some uncertainties in the simulation results.
So it is necessary to make further sensitivity analysis in the future research so as to
make the simulation results more accurate.
4.2 Possible Biogeophysical Effects of Cultivated Land
Conversion in Northeast China in 2010-2030
Human activities are widely recognized as one of the major contributors to climate
change, through both combustion of fossil fuels and land use activities (Lobell
et al. 2006 ), with the LUCC considered as the major influencing factor. Many
studies have revealed the extent to which land cover changes have affected local
and regional and even global climate (Marland et al. 2003 ). For example, previous
studies suggested that human-induced land cover change from forest to cultivated
lands could lead to a cooling of 0.25 C on a global basis, and northern mid-
latitude agricultural regions are about 1-2 C cooler in the winter and spring
compared to the pre-industrial state due to replacement of forest by cultivated
lands. A lot of observations and simulation experiments have suggested that the
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