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industrial demand for both electrical/electronic systems as well as for catalysts and
it is possible that their use in jewellery will subsequently decline.
1.6 The implications of mineral scarcity
All studies and reports mentioned in the previous section converge on the same
ideas: monopolistic and underdeveloped markets, rapid growth in demand, an in-
ability to outpace demand, supply shortages generally and price fluctuation. Also
political and international relations tensions, regulatory barriers, uneven geologi-
cal distribution and scarce resource endowment, lack of new mining investments,
unsustainable mining practices and urgent research needs.
For several decades ahead the world will continue to struggle with short-term
scarcities. On occasions, somewhat quite dramatic ones since they can occur sud-
denly in a myriad of forms: from war to natural catastrophes and accidents, in
addition to social, political and problems resulting from a lack of investment. Re-
gardless of the cause, resource depletion will be definitive. As Söderholm and Tilton
(2012) state “Material scarcity driven by resource depletion would occur slowly over
decades, perhaps centuries. Once in place, it would likely persist for a long time
and perhaps become permanent. As a result, it poses a serious potential threat to
modern civilisation”.
In fact, depletion of mineral resources is only seen as a problem once it becomes
blindingly obvious that the availability of raw materials really is a cause for concern,
by which time this realisation comes too late - rather like the unsinkable Titanic
and her iceberg. Apart from the tragedy of failing to turn quick enough to avoid
sea ice, humanity has also seen biological catastrophes caused by its own actions.
Many species are now consigned to museum displays, glass jars, paintings, sketches
and catalogues. Many more are examples of preservation, rather than conservation,
in zoos. Exploitation of priceless species for Man's whimsical fancies led to the
removal of animals and plants from the face of the Earth forever. There is no
reason to think that our generation will care any better for mineral resources, for a
future generation's yet to be discovered use - even should it be certain that they do
have an end. It is thus a critical matter for the future sustainability of the planet
and life as we live it in the Western world.
Yet as long as the resource problem is not perceived as such, little is done.
Scarcity and depletion is not seen as a permanent issue, only a small problem,
temporary in nature and influenced by politics, economics or the current state of
technology. As is seen throughout this topic, today's value of a given mineral is more
closely associated with its market price than any objective consideration towards its
physical scarcity. And, market prices are more sensitive to short or medium term
supply issues than anything relating to long term unavailability, due to exhaustion.
In any case, there are varying classifications of scarcity which influence the planet
and its life forms in different ways. In the case of phosphorous, it is a case of
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