The Depletion of Non-Renewable Abiotic Resources - Thanatia: The Destiny of the Earth's Mineral Resources - page 18

4 ( i )

3

-

2

1 (lo )

1 (lo ) 2 3 4 ( i )

- - x

Fig. 1.7 Short-term criticality matrix (DOE, 2011)

demand from 2015 to 2025 under a scenario of high global deployment and market
share, with a low material intensity of CdTe thin films. Additionally, the overall
world increase of rare earth production is forecasted from 120,000 t/yr in 2010 to
200,000 t/yr in 2025, with Nd increasing from 20,000 to 33,000 tonnes, Dy from
1,600 to 1,700 tonnes, Y from 10,500 to 11,300 tonnes, Eu from 370 to 550 tonnes,
Tb from 320 to 370 tonnes, Sm from 2,800 to 4,000 tonnes and Gd from 2,400 to
3,000 tonnes.
Moreover, the availability of metals composing the necessary NiMH batteries
in solar installations, such as cobalt, nickel, manganese, lanthanum and cerium de-
pends on demand. Thus whilst nickel and cobalt appear to be in adequate supply
into the short and medium term, the supply of manganese will need to increase
by about 500,000 t/yr. Lanthanum and cerium demand meanwhile may exceed
the estimated 2015 supply. Whilst lithium should be more in demand when elec-
tric vehicles (EV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) play an increasingly
important role in the private vehicle market.
Apart from these elements and despite the lack of quantitative supply-demand
analyses, the DOE report (DOE, 2011) warns about the issues associated with
gadolinium, magnesium and vanadium. Gadolinium is used in lightweight alloys,
medical, nuclear and electronic applications and is expected to play a key role in
magnetic refrigeration and solid oxide fuel cells as a doping agent of ceria, among