Epilogue - Thanatia: The Destiny of the Earth's Mineral Resources - page 513

Worthy of note is that at least two interactions appear in the growth of the trees
in this forest: the rebound effect and entropic backfire both of which have signifi-
cant impacts. The recursive nature of the rebound effect may incite an unexpected
demand for scarce or unavailable materials, thus increasing mining extraction (caus-
ing trunk thickening). In the second case a non-complete recycling inhibits further
profitable exploitation of the newly produced waste, motivating further extraction
of virgin material. A similar situation occurs in the case of downgrading as des-
cribed by McDonough and Braungart (2002). Consequently, taking care of this
forest by decelerating the cycles and avoiding counter-productive effects is the only
way of slowing the irreversible drift towards Thanatia. No matter the way back,
entropy will always increase. An important first step is recognising the wealth lost
in converting a forest into a desert and the “price” one would have to pay in order
to bring it back from the grave.
In practical terms, the idea of a spiralling tree better applies to metals than to
non-metals 6 and to those non-metal elements that are scarce in the crust such as
phosphorus, selenium, iodine and noble gases. It should be noted that a quanti-
tative spiralling tree closely resembles a vertical Sankey diagram where the mass
volume and branches of the element in the technosphere from the mine to dissipa-
tion are represented. Yet Sankey diagrams represent systems at a stationary state,
whereas the spiralling tree places the emphasis on the beginning and the end-of-life
of minerals. This is because sooner or later the destiny of a mined mineral will be
Thanatia. The spiralling tree is thus the best representation of this topic's title and
why it features on its cover.
17.5 A way to cross over from the theoretical to the practical
Replacement is the keyword in the accounting of the remaining planetary global
resources. Yet, what is the cost of replacing those natural resources society destroys?
Society lacks costing accounts, a fact which favours a consumerist lifestyle and
ignores the effects of resource squandering. There is thus a need to raise awareness
now that it has become possible to put a quantitative backbone into this debate. In
the authors' view, the depletion of a mineral should not be the difference between its
world price and its economic cost of production, as economists propose, seeing as this
is not a true indication of depletion. Instead one must talk about replacement costs.
Hence, loss of reserves should be quantified through their replacement cost using
current best available technologies, from the barerock to the ore grade conditions
of the mine. The cost of replacement of any non-renewable resource and that of
restoring deteriorated renewable resources may be thus used to account for how
much effort society would need to make in order to close natural and manmade
cycles.
6 Non-metals are located on the upper right side of the periodic table containing elements with
partially filled p orbitals that easily gain electrons forming anions.