Epilogue - Thanatia: The Destiny of the Earth's Mineral Resources - page 504

in time, extraction costs would have been extremely low, whilst replacement costs,
given the highly concentrated nature of all deposits, extremely high. As extraction
occurs, mineral deposits become steadily depleted and approach the conditions of
Thanatia. Accordingly, the exergy replacement costs decrease, whereas it becomes
more energy intensive to extract and refine those depleted deposits. Consequently,
the hidden costs are increasingly converted into real ones and at the limit, when all
minerals are dispersed into Thanatia, the exergy replacement costs are zero whilst
those required to extract, beneficiate and refine are infinite.
For this reason, if prices only take into account production costs, the result is
that the monetary value of a rare object is only subject to short term market insta-
bilities manufactured by supply issues. The fact that mineral patrimony is steadily
being eroded is forgotten. If, by way of contrast, prices also internalise exergy
replacement costs, the avoided and hidden cost for having “mineral monuments”
available are taken into account. As explained previously, extracting concentrated
mineral resources today, implies a greater energy consumption and cost tomorrow.
As ore grades continue to decline over time, it is important that the current re-
placement cost is converted into money that can then be used to offset the higher
extraction costs sure to be experienced into the future. This would entail an increase
in the current market price of mineral commodities which could then be used to
offset the increased extraction and beneficiation costs faced by future generations as
they attempt to meet their needs. Such thinking is a step towards what constitutes
a thermodynamic solution to the very much sought after intergenerational justice.
Society is forever picking the lower hanging fruits in the hope that technology,
sometime into the future, will facilitate a continuous cherry picking. However,
regardless of whether Man's innovations will someday become e cient enough or
not, the amount of exergy needed to extract the next unit of mineral will increase.
Hence, mineral scarcity can never be a simple yes or no, nor of how much or how
little but rather a question of whether technology can ever offset the increasing
amount of exergy required in mineral extraction. Apart from direct exergy costs,
the indirect ones, i.e. those involved in repairing environmental and social damage,
enhancing accessibility or supplying water and materials, will also rise. The problem
of mineral depletion does not relate to its absence but rather questions the provision
of energy and the impact of extraction on the environment. This is why it is so
important to account for and assign fairer prices to non-renewable resources, so as
to conserve the mineral wealth on Earth for future generations.
17.2.8 Replacement costs, technology and conservation of
resources
This topic has shown that it is the increasing thermodynamic rarity of minerals
rather than their overall depletion per se that is really the problem that Man needs
to face. Whilst rarity may be more critical for some elements than others, the costs
of extraction, beneficiation and recovery (either economic, environmental or social)