The Challenge of Resource Depletion - Thanatia: The Destiny of the Earth's Mineral Resources - page 464

should be placed into Nature's account, in order to repair and replace the natural
capital which has been taken. This is because Nature's reparation, the sun, is never
given su cient time to reinvigorate ecosystems and minerals, even if its exergy is
su cient to do so.
In a planet that virtually “shrinks” (as year by year the human population and
its desires grow), it is no longer the case of solely one effect linked to a single linear
cause but instead multiple causes leading to a myriad of effects. Man has long
surpassed the limits of linear behaviour and “his” decisions affect the causes triggered
by those very decisions. Furthermore, history influences the future. Systems show
a recursive behaviour that is modified by past actions, which are subject to ever
changing political decisions. In this respect, sustainability is extremely complex
with its dynamics influencing social norms, values and beliefs, ecosystems, climate,
water and the crust. This field, perhaps more than any other, can affect the future
availability of resources and the technological development of the machines and
practices used to extract them. Accordingly, cybernetic models to understand the
behaviour of industrial society against resource demand, should be subjected to
recursivity and reflexivity 8 .
Future scenario models should be fractals with any generated information
checked and crossed referenced with an immense database. Just establishing a body
of scientists to harmonise any existing databases, identify the most adequate indi-
cators and develop the necessary models and methodologies would however present
an unprecedented large scale international effort and commitment (van der Voet
and Graedel, 2010). The need for interdisciplinary research in this field (given that
a multitude of skills and knowledge bases are touched) is not only enormous but
urgent, especially if one is to provide society with su cient warning so as to avoid
impending catastrophe.
15.4.3 Maintenance as the key to resource preservation
Mankind is in a state of reactive or corrective maintenance 9 , where very few actions
are taken until natural systems fail. This state is reflected in the fact that society
does not feel the need to care for the planet in the sense of repairing and replace-
ment, since the majority do not believe that major disruptions could occur. This
has an apparent advantage; neither people nor money are expended until a problem
appears. Inopportunely, as everything is connected with everything else, any prob-
lem generates a chain of new and unexpected events which complicate and make
corrections insurmountable costly. Worse though, the Earth has no instructions
8 According to Umpleby (2007), “Reflexivity occurs in social systems whereby an actor observes
and thinks about his or her actions and their consequences and then modifies his or her behaviour
accordingly”.
9 For more information on reactive or corrective maintenance see for instance: http :
==performancealliance:org=Portals=4=Documents=Committees=NonResQM=OM_5:pdf. Ac-
cessed May, 2013.