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weaknesses could make it di cult for emerging economies to satisfy their accelerated
growth in energy demand.
Non-hydro renewables, particularly wind power, are expected to cover 15% of the
electricity demand in 2035. Such renewables will, according to the IEA, continue to
be subsidised especially in remote areas where additional and important investments
need to be made in transmission lines. Hydropower will increase but its overall
contribution, due to the expansion of the electricity sector, will remain at around
15%.
1.4 Materials demand for the new Green Economy
The authors believe strongly that the world needs more sustainable energy than
the mere 7 to 15% that many forecasts are predicting for the next generation.
Renewable energies could and should help plug the gap but cannot and should not
be considered at least in the short term as the complete solution. This is because
it is not a matter of just deploying more of them. To that effect, Heinberg (2009)
defines four conditions for a primary energy source to be competitive in the future:
It should provide a substantial quantity of energy and its contribution to coun-
tries should not be marginal.
The energy provided should be at least ten times greater than the required
energy to place it in the market from the cradle.
It should be acceptable from a social, geopolitical and environmental point of
view, including the effects on climate.
It should be renewable.
García-Olivares et al. (2012) add a fifth point:
Energy exploitation and use (including renewables) should not depend on scarce
materials.
It is in fact this last point which is the most forgotten issue in practically all
discourses in favour of renewable energies. As apart from the need for further
research and development, renewable energy infrastructure is less densely packed
than fossil fuels and thus requires a much larger quantity of land and critical raw
materials for successful deployment. That land has to come from somewhere and
somebody somewhere needs to be willing to sacrifice it. Sacrifice doesn't come
easy and sparks local “environmental” pressure groups, which although aware and
supportive of the need for energy alternatives, are not prepared to see them in their
backyard. At the same time, more materials mean more extraction and subsequently
more energy consumption and a greater impact on the environment. And it is this
greater impact, particularly in terms of materials availability (due to geological or
socio-economic reasons) that has not been su ciently covered in the algorithms of
 
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