The Exergy Evolution of Mineral Wealth - Thanatia: The Destiny of the Earth's Mineral Resources - page 416

peak could be reached in 2023, as shown in Fig. 13.48. Bentley (2002) also estimates
that the global peak in conventional gas production is already in sight, in perhaps
as little as 20 years 17 . Hence, Bentley's estimation fits very well with the authors'
calculations. If one then considers the optimistic estimate for ultimately recoverable
reserves of an additional 500 Gtoe as reported by Gregory and Rogner (1998), the
Hubbert Peak would be pushed forward to 2069 (see Fig. 13.48).

x 10 6

3.5 x 10 6

7

2069

2024 6

3

5

2.5

4

2

3

1.5

2

1

0.5 1

0

0

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250

(a) Proven reserves (b) Additional recoverable reserves

Fig. 13.48 The Hubbert Peak applied to world natural gas production. Data based on proven
reserves (a) and additional recoverable reserves (Gregory and Rogner, 1998) (b). Data obtained
from BP (2011)

Beyond doubt, oil is the most depleted fuel, with nearly half of its reserves
extracted (45.9%). Oil's R/P ratio indicates that there could be enough oil for only
another 49 years, before absolute depletion occurs. The Hubbert bell-shaped curve
(Fig. 13.49) indicates that peak oil was already reached in 2012. If as stated by
Masters et al. (1994), additional recoverable resources of 141 Gtoe are considered
in the analysis, even then, the peak would only shift forwards as far as 2027, only
15 years! That said, the 2012 value fits very well with the predictions of other
authors, such as Hatfield (1997); Kerr (1998) or Campbell and Laherrère (1998),
who estimated that the peak would occur between 2004 and 2008. In fact, Campbell
and Laherrere's prediction in 1998 that the world could see radical increases in oil
prices some ten years later also proved correct. For exactly 10 years later, the
price of a barrel of crude oil increased by a 100% in just 12 months, surpassing in
January 2008, the psychological barrier of a $US 100 and reaching a record high of
$US 147.27 in July of the same year. Nonetheless, the 2008 global financial crisis
drastically reduced oil demand, provoking a sharp drop in oil prices, which reverted
back to the price levels of 2004 (See Figs. 13.50 and 13.51). Even so, as shown by
Fig. 13.51, oil prices spiral upwar ds, as confidence in world markets re-grows.
17 Referred to the publication date.