The Exergy Evolution of Mineral Wealth - Thanatia: The Destiny of the Earth's Mineral Resources - page 410

reserves (lower bound), for the following mineral commodities: mercury (1960), ar-
senic (1971), tin (1979), lead (1989), gold (1994), silver (1995), cadmium (1996),
antimony (1998), zinc (1999), zirconium (2003), manganese (2007), wolfram (2007)
and copper (2012). Considering world resources (upper bound), the peak might
have been reached for mercury (1965), tin (1986), silver (1999), gold (2001), anti-
mony (2006) and zirconium (2006). From the latter minerals, silver, antimony and
zirconium haven't really reached a real production peak. Indeed, it should be stated
that for silver and antimony, no world resources data are currently available and
that their theoretical peaks have been obtained through reserve base data (of 2006).
Furthermore, silver and zirconium are extracted as byproducts from other major
ones and antimony has associated with it environmental and supply concentration
problems, hence why Hubbert theory may not apply. Figs. 13.36 through 13.45
show a selection of the curves studied.

x 10 4

4

8000

3.5

7000

3

2001 6000

2.5

5000

1960

2

4000

1.5

3000

2000 1

1000

0.5

0

0

1900 1950 2000 2050 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

(a) Gold (b) Mercury

Fig. 13.36 The Hubbert Peak applied to the gold reserve base (a) and mercury reserves (b). Data
obtained from USGS (2010)

2500

4000

3500

2000

3000

1999

2500

1500

2006

2000

1000

1500

1000

500

500

0 0

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

(a) Silver (b) Antimony

Fig. 13.37 The Hubbert Peak applied to silver (a) and antimony (b) reserve base. Data obtained
from USGS (2010)