The Exergy Evolution of Mineral Wealth - Thanatia: The Destiny of the Earth's Mineral Resources - page 408

100

Mercury

90

80

Arsenic

Tin

Antimony Gold

Lead

Silver

70

Zinc

Barium

Cadmium

Strontium

60

Fluorspar

Copper Manganese Wolfram

50

Selenium

Lithium

Bismuth
Boron

Nickel - sulfides

Indium

Molybdenum

40

Graphite

Titanium-rutile

Phosphate rock

Zirconium

30

Rhenium

Uranium

Iron ore

Tellurium

Titanium-ilmenite

Cobalt

Niobium

20 Tantalum

Aluminium (Bauxite)

PGM
Potash

Vanadium

10

Iodine

REE

Cesium

Thorium

0

Fig. 13.35 Depletion degree in % of the main non-fuel mineral commodity reserves

constant over time, plotting production versus time in tonnage, in terms of exergy
or in exergy replacement cost will not affect the final result. In this case, the exergy
replacement costs (B ) versus time have been plotted, since the production patterns
obtained will be represented in “exergy countdown” diagrams.
Table 13.4 shows the theoretical peak considering available reserves and world
resources as published by the USGS in 2010. For those minerals where no world
resource data was available, information on reserve base 14 was used instead, as is
the case for gold, silver, tantalum and antimony. The regression factors of each fit
are shown (R 2 ) in addition to the observed empirical peak, should it have already
occurred.

Table 13.4: The peak in production of some of the world's most important
mineral commodities.

Theoretical Data Empirical Data

R 2 W.R. Peak R 2 Observed Peak

Reserves Peak

Aluminium 2050 0.98 2088 0.98 -

Antimony 1998 0.56 2006 (R.B.) 0.64 -

Arsenic 1971 0.29 2056 0.31 2006

Beryllium 2082 0.40 1981

Bismuth 2015 0.87 2042 0.86 -

Cadmium 1996 0.98 2076 0.90 2000

Continued on next page :::

14 The USGS has stopped providing information for the reserves base and hence 2006 data has
been included in the table.