Geology Reference
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Fig. 13.20 shows the Hubbert Peak Model applied to Australian oil production.
The theoretical peak occurs in 1996, with a regression factor of RF=0.92. The
empirical peak was reached in 2000 and was followed by a sharp decrease in pro-
duction. This behaviour is the same as that found in U.S. copper mines and in the
models of Meadows et al. (1972), indicating that the symmetrical exponential curve
of Hubbert might not be the best fit.
13.3.9.1 Natural gas
Australia has sizable natural gas reserves located in offshore basins and in most of its
states. The country is the fifth largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the
world. Natural gas production has increased steadily over the last decade. Domestic
consumption has also grown. The country is expected to maintain, at a minimum,
natural gas self-su
ciency for the ensuing decade. Additionally, recent natural gas
exploration has resulted in several important discoveries, mainly offshore. Further
discoveries will surely be made, probably inadvertently as a byproduct of the coun-
try's recent surge in petroleum exploration (EIA, 2004).
Historical data on Australian natural gas production dates back to 1961. Ta-
ble D.11 in the appendix shows production data compiled by the BGS. Reserves
have increased in the last few years reaching approximately 3.1 trillion cubic me-
ters in 2009 (BP, 2010). The exergy loss of Australian natural gas reserves due to
extraction is shown in Fig. 13.21.
45,000
B, ktoe
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Year
Fig. 13.21 The exergy loss of Australian natural gas reserves
The application of the Hubbert bell-shaped curve generates a peak in 2029. It
has been assumed, that the total reserves are equal to 3.6 Gtoe
8
. The regression fac-
8
The total reserves are obtained as the exergy reserves in 2009, plus the cumulated exergy pro-
duction between 1961 and 2009.
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