Geology Reference
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prominent studies also used Hubbert's model to predict the evolution of crude oil
extraction at the planetary level (Deffeyes, 2001; Bentley, 2002; Campbell and La-
herrère, 1998; Campbell, 2003). According to these estimates, the corresponding
peak in production should take place within the first decade of the 21st century or
not much later. And as Campbell and Laherrère (1998) argue, from an economic
perspective it is not directly relevant that the world exhausts all its fossil fuels, what
matters is when production begins to taper off because beyond that point, prices
will rise unless demand declines commensurately.
It must be pointed out that any successful prediction obtained using the model
(or its derivatives) depends on many factors, the reliability of the estimated reserves
being a critical one. For instance, Forrester/Meadows models (Forrester, 1971;
Meadows et al., 1972) are almost always asymmetric with the decline much sharper
than the growth. Bardi (2005) showed also that the bell-shaped curve may turn
out to be strongly asymmetric should certain extraction strategies be used. In
fact, especially when the peak is in sight, various factors other than pure geological
scarcity come into play. As Bartlett (2000) argues, actual production curves will be
most likely modified by economic, geological, political, technological amongst other
factors, which may result in a deterioration of the quality of fit between the data
and the Gaussian curves. In the same way, Höök et al. (2010a) claim that peak
(oil) is a theory backed by phenomenological evidence, including geology, reservoir
physics, fluid mechanics, statistical physics, economics, and actual observations.
Accordingly the authors classify the possible deviations of the empirical data
from the theoretical curves into the following categories:
Political instability: the political/economic intervention of OPEC in 1973-4
and again in 1980 following the Iran-Iraq War is for instance argued to have
prevented the Hubbert (1971) global peak oil prediction of 2000 from being
correct (Almeida and Silva, 2009). Thus, as economists tend to argue, the
interaction of supply and demand determines the equilibrium price path in a
market economy. It may also determine the equilibrium production path, i.e a
price spike cannot solely be in response to physical scarcity.
Investment niche: gold is the most representative commodity whose produc-
tion depends strongly on market speculation. Indeed with the global economic
instability and market price fluctuations (prices have multiplied fourfold in just
one decade, passing from below 10 million $/t in 2000 to close to 40 in 2010 -
Fig. 13.2) investment in gold has increased, as investors seek safe-havens (USGS,
2010). Other precious metals such as silver or platinum follow similar patterns
of behaviour.
Environment and health factors: certain minerals have proven to be dangerous
for the environment and/or human health. Consequently, alternative and safer
options have been sought to replace the original substance in its application,
leading to sharp reductions in its extraction. Obviously if there is no commercial
 
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