Thanatia and the Crepuscular Earth Model - Thanatia: The Destiny of the Earth's Mineral Resources - page 300

Fig. 10.4 Evolution of mean global temperature anomaly (Valero et al., 2011)

Table 10.3 Main results of the model (Valero et al., 2011)

Crepuscular atmosphere
Scenario CO 2 , atm (ppmv)

MST ( o C) MST ( o C) P atm (bar)

BAU-I 682.86 3.7 17.2 1.0209

BAU-II 5,547.23 12.18 25.69 1.049

A2-II 5,261.2 11.96 25.47 1.0483

Stabilised atmosphere
Scenario CO 2 , atm (ppmv) MST ( o C) MST ( o C) P atm (bar)

BAU-I 439.1 1.82 15.32 1.0144

BAU-II 3,201.5 9.84 23.35 1.0416

A2-II 3,264.95 9.92 23.43 1.0419

warming relative to pre-industrial conditions might constitute a near 10 o C increase.
Table 10.4 presents the composition of the crepuscular and stabilised atmos-
phere, on a dry basis for each of the different scenarios. This composition is obtained
when taking into account the fact that the combustion of 1 kg of carbon demands
about 2.67 kg of oxygen, leading to its overall reduction in the atmosphere. Vapour
pressure meanwhile is expected to increase due to the atmosphere's higher water
content with the saturation pressure also increasing due to higher temperatures. As
a consequence, the mean global relative humidity will not vary significantly for the
final state of interest.
Given the numerous and significant restrictions preventing the consumption of
fossil fuels in the future, Valero et al. (2011) consider that emissions scenario BAU-I
is the most likely to occur among the three presented. In addition, this scenario
involves smaller uncertainties regarding the future commercial exploitation of un-
conventional fossil fuels. The high emissions from scenarios BAU-II and A2-II also