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could incorporate acceptable thresholds of fire frequency and biodiversity impacts, but these
Thresholds of Potential Concern (TPCs; see Chapter 1) need a realistic basis that reflects fire
history and the impacts of past fire management (van Wilgen et al. 2003, Penman et al. 2011).
Adaptive management frameworks can incorporate ecological values and facilitates better
collaboration between scientists, land managers, and other stakeholders (Penman et al 2011).
While early adaptive management focused on project learning, through implementation,
monitoring, and adjustment cycles, later models added cycles of programmatic learning
where stakeholders worked together to define and adjust problems in a social framework,
before project implementation cycles began (Fontaine 2011). However, adaptive manage-
ment has seldom formally incorporated a long-term perspective, and therefore TPCs do not
always accommodate the normal range of variability (Gillson and Duffin 2007, Gillson and
Marchant 2014). The 'triple loop' adaptive management cycle outlined in Figure 4.12 helps to
Conceptualize
Identify
Stakeholders
Define Scope and
Vision
Review Landscape
History and
Variability
Long-term data,
Programmatic
Learning
Temporal
Perspective
Identify different
future scenarios
Reassess
Identify Problem
Explore
Socioeconomic
Context
Social Preferences
and economic drivers
Estimate of
Thresholds of
Potential Concern
Identify Management
Alternatives
Predict Outcomes
Model alternatives
Monitor Outcomes
In relation to
objectives, TPCs and
future scenarios
Design management
experiments
Scenarios and
Hypotheses testing
Project
Learning
Implementation
Figure 4.12
Adaptive management cycle that incorporates programmatic, temporal and project learn-
ing, enabling the historic ('natural') range of variability to be incorporated into thresholds of potential
concern (Gillson and Marchant 2014). Reproduced with permission from Elsevier.
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