The Conservation Paradox - Biodiversity Conservation and Environmental Change - page 10

dynamics might help present day management and restoration (Turner et al. 1998, Turner
and Dale 1998, Urquhart 2009). Furthermore, many ecosystems were managed by humans
for millennia, and there is a need to understand the link between social and ecological sys-
tems, perhaps learning some lessons for sustainability from traditional knowledge and man-
agement systems (Berkes and Folke 1998, Berkes et al. 2003, Folke et al. 2005, Biermann et al.
2012, Dearing et al. 2012).
Sustainability and tipping points are high on the policy agenda and with the growing emphasis
on process, variability, resilience, and threshold responses, there is an urgent need for long-term
data, regarding the nature, rate, and extent of change over time (Rockström et al. 2009, Brook
et al. 2013, Griggs et al. 2013, Hughes et al. 2013). Understanding how ecosystems respond to cli-
mate change and human management is critical to developing realistic management goals in

Sediment
cores

Socioeconomic
scenarios

Historical
maps

Historical
photos

Climate
scenarios

Weather
data

Ecological
scenarios

Satellite
data

Past Historical Modern Present Future scenarios

Figure 1.4 How different environmental proxies combine to reconstruct climate and ecosystem dynam-
ics through time. Accessing deep time is only possible via sedimentary records, where several proxy
tools, such as pollen, can be used to place the more recent indicators of environmental ecosystem change
in context. As one moves through time, additional varied sources of information can be included, such
as historical maps, photographs, meteorological data, and satellite perspectives on recent land-use
changes. Such an integrated approach is essential to gain a comprehensive understanding of past eco-
system dynamics and human interactions, and to engender the development of appropriate and sensi-
tive modelling tools for future scenarios. When these different strands of information are woven together,
they can be used to understand potential climate, social, ecological, or economic futures that have foun-
dations embedded in a meaningful timeframe (Gillson and Marchant 2014). Reproduced with permis-
sion from Elsevier.