The Conservation Paradox - Biodiversity Conservation and Environmental Change - page 8

(a)

Stability Processes Depiction of myth

Metaphor Tr ajectory

Nature flat None Stochastic

Nature
balanced

Globally stable Negative feedback

Nature
resilient

Multiple
stable states

Exogenous input and
internal feedback

Collapse / Re-organization

(b)

Vulnerable

Safe Operating
Space

TIME
Environmental variable increasing

Environment varying about a mean

Vulnerable

Adaptation /
increased resilience

Safe Operating
Space

Planning and Adaptation
Environmental variable increasing

TIME

Environment varying about a mean

Figure 1.3 (a) Resilience metaphors (Gunderson and Holling 2001). In Nature flat the system's position is
determined by random or stochastic factors. In Nature balanced, the system is in a static or dynamic
equilibrium so will tend to return towards stability of disturbed. In Nature resilient several stable states
exist and disturbance can lead to a new stable state if disturbed beyond a threshold level. From Panarchy
by Lance H. Gunderson and C.S. Holling. Copyright © 2002 by Island Press. Reproduced by permission
of Island Press, Washington, DC. (b) In a varying environment, a system may reorganize if a threshold is
crossed, but resilience can be increased through adaptation; for example, species may change their tol-
erance to warmer temperatures, or an agricultural system may adapt by switching to drought-adapted
crops. Adapted from Woodroffe (2007), Gil-Romera et al. (2010), and McWethy et al. (2010a).

ecosystem approach including adaptive management is essential to all conservation deci-
sions that involve complexity and uncertainty (Kay et al. 1999, Folke et al. 2004, Linden-
mayer and Hunter 2010, Hirsch et al. 2011).
While biodiversity and ecological processes provide the basis for adaptation, experimenta-
tion, knowledge co-production, and learning are the means by which science and society
build resilience and adaptive capacity in unpredictable and complex environments (Redman