Conclusions: Conservation in the Anthropocene - Biodiversity Conservation and Environmental Change - page 172

predicting ecosystem responses to climate change, and in assessing the possible effects of
management interventions in a no-analogue future (Anderson et al. 2006, Williams and Jack-
son 2007, Gillson et al. 2013).
We are moving towards an uncertain future, and many of today's landscapes are unique to
the Anthropocene, with new socio-economic drivers and no analogue in the historical or pal-
aeoecological records. Novel combinations of rainfall and temperature, alongside introduced
species and new disturbance regimes can cause species reshuffling and novel assemblages
(Williams and Jackson 2007) (see Chapter 5). The combination of a rapidly changing climate,
extensive land-use change, CO 2 fertilization, and nitrogen deposition, alongside the acciden-
tal and deliberate introduction of non-native species, have the potential to create unique spe-
cies assemblages. Changing biotic interactions, trophic cascades, the spread of alien species
and pathogens may lead to dramatic reorganization of ecosystems if ecological or environ-
mental thresholds are crossed (Terborgh et al. 2006, West et al. 2009, Estes et al. 2011, Wil-
liams et al. 2011, Galetti and Dirzo 2013). The outcomes of management interventions may
therefore be uncertain, and conservation goals and management approaches need to be flex-
ible and adaptive in order to respond to changing ecological, environmental and social driv-
ers (Biggs and Rogers 2003, Lawler 2009, West et al. 2009, Rowland et al. 2011). Studying and
modelling past environmental change may help in understanding the thresholds or tipping
points at which ecosystem reorganization takes place, and may even help to develop early
warning systems that identify ecosystem instability in time for ameliorative measures to take
place (Gillson 2009, Willis et al. 2010, Wang et al. 2012, Gillson and Marchant 2014). Knowl-
edge of impending ecosystem reorganization, as well as understanding the collapse and reor-
ganization of past socioecological systems might help to inform adaptations that are relevant
today (chapters 6 and 7) (Costanza et al. 2007, Van der Leeuw et al. 2011, Williams et al. 2011).
Compiling long-term historical and palaeoecological records into free accessible data bases
will help to realise the potential synergies between climate change science, modelling and
palaeoecology (Brewer et al. 2012, Gillson and Marchant 2014).
Disturbance, resilience, and heterogeneity
In the transient landscapes of the Anthropocene, species distribution and community com-
position is in flux, and yet, there is a need to preserve ecosystem integrity and the ecological
processes that underpin ecosystem services and landscape sustainability. Building resilience
and maintaining the capacity to adapt are critical. One facet of this is to restore or maintain
intermediate levels of disturbance that are within, or close to, the range of natural variability,
and create landscape heterogeneity, thereby fostering spatial resilience (Watt 1947, Wu and
Loucks 1995, Pickett et al. 1997, Cumming 2011, Wu 2012, Cumming et al. 2013).
In many areas of the world, natural disturbance patterns by fire and herbivores have been
disrupted and ecosystem structure has been homogenized. Reintroducing disturbance
regimes based on long-term knowledge can help to restore heterogeneity, and thereby build
ecological resilience (Millar et al. 2007, North and Keeton 2008, Long 2009, Turner et al. 2013).
For example, reintroducing patchy fires can break up the fuel base and create a diverse