Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
society is at the core of the ecosystem management approach (see Chapter 1), and therefore
adaptive capacity needs to be fostered in institutions as well as ecosystems, with an emphasis
on understanding ecosystem dynamics and social-ecological interactions at a range of spa-
tial and temporal scales. While modern societies may be buffered to some extent from cli-
mate change by technology, we are still dependent on relatively few main food crops and due
to population growth, changes in livelihood options, and for political reasons, we have fewer
options in terms of migration to more favourable climates. Study of the rise and fall of past
societies show the importance of efficient water harvesting, storage and management and
diverse, flexible agricultural and agroforestry systems that utilize a diverse range of crops and
varieties, thereby increasing resilience (Redman and Kinzig 2003, Costanza et al. 2007). Inte-
grated multifunctional landscapes are needed that buffer ecosystems against climate change
and other drivers, while maintaining the ecosystem services upon which human well-being
depends (Chapters 6 and 7).
Summary: can we build resilience in a perfect storm?
We are currently facing a 'perfect storm, in which multiple drivers including climate change,
land-use, pollution, and invasive alien species interact at different scales, potentially produc-
ing unpredictable feedbacks in ecological systems (Dearing et al. 2012a, Barnosky et al. 2013,
Barnosky et  al. 2014). A multidiscplinary approach, including the outputs of model simula-
tions, long-term ecological monitoring, paleoecology, historical data, and experimental
manipulations are needed to understand environmental change and response at a range of
spatial and temporal scales (Dawson et  al. 2011, Gillson and Marchant 2014). There is vast
potential to use palaeoecological records in understanding, predicting, and responding to
climate change. Rates and magnitude of distributional response, and the capacity to adapt to
changing climate can all be studied in the palaeo-record, and this information can contribute
to strategic conservation planning, particularly the configuration of reserves and protected
area networks. Insights about resilience and tipping points in ecosystems can also be gained
from the palaeo-record, and used in designing management interventions that ameliorate
the impacts of climate change. Palaeoecology has a valuable role in validating model outputs
and in understanding the magnitude of landcover-climate feedbacks on regional climate
(Marland et al. 2003).
Despite the promising work that is happening in the Amazon and Andean Flank, the
direct application of palaeoecology in climate-change integrated conservation strategies
is still surprisingly rare (Williams et  al. 2013). This is partly because of perceptions that
palaeo-work focuses on timescales that are too long to be relevant to many conservation
practitioners and also because of an emphasis on colder periods like the Last Glacial Max-
imum and glacial refugia, whereas knowledge of the warmer climates is more relevant to
today's conservation concerns (Svenning et al. 2011, Ashcroft et al. 2012, Hampe et al. 2013,
Gavin et  al. 2014). More high-resolution palaeoecological work from the mid-Holocene
onwards is needed, as well as a better integration with theoretical ecology, neoecology
and conservation biology. Databases, modelling, and interactive management tools will
 
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