Past, Present, and Future Climate Change: Can Palaeoecology Help Manage a Warming World? - Biodiversity Conservation and Environmental Change - page 105

(a)

(c)

shifting climate space

shifting climate space

(b)

(d)

shifting climate space

Figure 5.10 Geometric principles for the design of protected areas in a changing climate. Reserves are
represented as islands in a homogeneous environment. Light grey represents areas with current suit-
able climate, dark grey represents areas with both current suitable climate and future suitable climate.
In each case (a-d) both the left and right designs have the same total area and conventional principles
state that the design on the left is preferable to that on the right. The area of reserve remaining with suit-
able climate space in the future can be maximised by adopting several small reserves as opposed to a
single large reserve (a), arranging disjunctive reserves linearly (b), or elongating reserve design (c) in
anticipation of shifting suitable climate space. Connecting reserves with corridors of suitable habitat is
expected to reduce extinctions by increasing dispersal between reserves (d). However, at large scales
many species are not expected to keep pace with changing climate by migrating via normal dispersal
mechanisms, potentially rendering corridors of little use (Pearson and Dawson 2005). Reproduced with
permission from Elsevier.

which are unfavourable to the regeneration of cloud forest in its new climate space. Bush
et al. term this pressure from both altitudinal edges due to climate change and land-use 'the
Big Squeeze. hey call for the establishment of vertical migration corridors, incorporating
currently degraded land that in future may form part of the climate space of valued and bio-
diverse vegetation types (Bush et al. 2008). The Carrasco National Park in Bolivia and the
Sangay National Park in Ecuador are two such reserves, encompassing a wide altitudinal
range and a diversity of vegetation types. An analysis of over four decades of satellite images
from inside and outside of the Manu National Park, Peru, show that the forest-grassland eco-
tone migrated upslope more rapidly inside protected areas, than in areas with frequent cattle
grazing (Lutz et al. 2013). Even so, more intensive management such as fire suppression and
transplantation of cloud forest tree seedlings will be needed if massive losses of cloud forest
habitat are to be avoided (Lutz et al. 2013).