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in coming decades, especially at low latitudes and in high emissions scenarios (Lobell
et al. 2011, Fraser et al. 2013, Rosenzweig et al. 2014). Insights from palaeo-records and
future modelling scenarios suggest that crop diversification and resilient agrarian land-
scapes will be essential as climate warms and extremes of temperature and drought
become more frequent (see Chapters 6 and 7) (Fischer et al. 2012, Tscharntke et al. 2012,
von Wehrden et al. 2014).
Similarly, the MWP was a time of rapid population growth and cultural advancement in
central Europe (Büntgen et al. 2011). Grape harvests and wine-making flourished in Brit-
ain and successful agriculture was established in Greenland. In contrast, MWP droughts
occurring in the eleventh century played a role in the collapse of the Tiwanaku civilization
of the Bolivian-Peruvian Altiplano (see earlier) (Binford et al. 1997) and the fall of the
Maya in the tenth century (see Chapter 7) (Dunning et al. 2012, Kennett et al. 2012, Turner
and Sabloff 2012).
The Inca Empire rose to power during the warmer climate of the MWP (Chepstow-Lusty
et al. 2007). Between c. 1400-1532 ce, the rapid expansion of the Inca from the Cuzco area of
highland Peru produced the largest empire in the New World. This was in part due to the
adoption of innovative societal strategies, the large labour force, and powerful army, but it
probably would not have been possible without the warmer climates that occurred from 1100
ce, which increased crop productivity and allowed agriculture to flourish at higher altitudes.
The Inca people embarked on terrace construction, and developed irrigation systems fed by
melting glaciers. They developed agroforestry systems that contributed to greater food secu-
rity and sustained large populations. The agricultural surplus supported their economic and
political potential, enabling trade and the centralization of power in the Cuzco region by
c. 1400 ce (Chepstow-Lusty et al. 2007). The Inca empire spread through Peru, Ecuador, Chile,
Bolivia, and Colombia and had a population of over 16 million. It was an advanced civiliza-
tion with astounding architecture, hydraulic engineering, advanced agricultural techniques,
as well as textiles, ceramics, and a vast fortune in gold and silver work. Weakened by a brutal
civil war, and under the leadership of an inexperienced emperor, the empire fell in a matter of
decades when the Spanish conquistadors brought smallpox and Catholicism to the land.
Over 90% of the Inca population died of diseases, while many others were killed or enslaved
(Chepstow-Lusty et al. 2007).
In general, in high-latitude and high-altitude areas where agriculture is hampered by cold
temperatures, a warming climate may be expected to enhance agricultural productivity,
enabling population growth, and enhancing the availability of labour and boosting economic
growth and prosperity. However, interactions with water availability are crucial, and warmer
temperatures can reduce water availability. Furthermore, feedbacks with land cover can
influence regional rainfall, water supplies, and agricultural potential. At lower latitudes,
where temperatures are not limiting, warming may reduce water availability and impact on
food security. Thus, the palaeoecological, archaeological, and historical records suggest that
effective water management and resilient, flexible agrarian systems that can provide a range
of ecosystem services will be essential elements of socioecological adaptation to warmer cli-
mates (see Chapters 6 and 7) (Redman and Kinzig 2003, Costanza et al. 2007).
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