Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
12.5
Results and Discussion
Since our model was based on actual observation from the last 30 years in Houston,
the temporal transition probability matrix is calculated by accumulating the periods
from 1979 to 2010. We first calculated the yearly transition matrix between each
two subsequent maps between 1979-1990, 1990-2000, and 2000-2010 and then
calculated the yearly transition matrix between 1979 and 2010 using Eq.
12.3
.The
yearly transition probability matrix from 1979 to 2010 is shown in Table
12.4
.
Using the yearly transition probability matrices in Table
12.4
, we parameterized
the Markov transition probability and socioeconomic variable on the census block
level into the CA model. Two CA models were built up, one with the socioeconomic
variables and another one without. Figures
12.4
and
12.5
show the initial state and
simulated pattern of Houston with the socioeconomic variables and without the
socioeconomic variables, respectively.
The simulated results from two models have similar pattern in general urban
sprawl pattern: fast shrinkage in grassland and woodland and clear outward
expansion in residential or industrial/commercial area. This growth pattern could
Table 12.4
Yearly transition probability (%) matrix from 1979 to 2010
Industrial/
commercial
Houston (1979-2010)
Residential
Grassland
Woodland
Barren/soil
Residential
98.07
0.82
0.56
0.42
0.12
Industrial/commercial
1.24
98.01
0.23
0.03
0.4
Grassland
1.85
0.35
97.13
0.53
0.12
Woodland
0.09
0.18
1.19
98.25
0.26
Barren/soil
2.26
2.27
1.26
0.19
94.02
Fig. 12.4
The simulated landscape pattern of Houston with the socioeconomic factors
Search WWH ::
Custom Search