Information Technology Reference
In-Depth Information
Does a faster exchange of information
really decrease uncertainty? Because
there is no way to eliminate uncertainty,
the best we can hope for is to manage
our own biases and fallibilities. This is
no small feat and well worth pursuing,
as it is in the realm of our personal con-
trol and influence. Nonetheless, there is
always the external random factor that
we have no control over and no way of
predicting—despite the claims of media
20/20 hindsight.
At best, a framework for future thought may provide insight into where cur-
rent circumstances are leading, although certainty decreases as time increases
from the point of prediction. The best approach is to build a modular, agile
framework where specifics come and go in the larger, more constant architectural
abstraction. At its core, architecture considers the wants and needs of the user.
Architecture also attempts to be flexible, agile, and adaptable. A future thought
framework allows architects to consider the future in an objective manner. Is it
perfect? No. Is it useful? Yes, in the right context, and taken with salt of varying
grain sizes.
Whatever the future holds, our ability to predict that which we can, and cope
with that which we cannot, finds foundation in the richness of philosophy. C.
S. Lewis defines chronological snobbery as the uncritical acceptance of the intel-
lectual climate of our own age and the assumption that whatever has gone out of
date is on that count discredited. The knowledge of our time is not the best by
exclusive virtue of merely belonging to our time. Patterns abound in nature, human
activity, individual psychology, group dynamics, organizational behavior, political
behavior, and technology. The cycles of repetition and the trigger events for pattern
changes are difficult to identify, but not impossible—look far enough in the past
and you find a point that is today; look a little ahead of that point, and perhaps you
find tomorrow.
Much sound thought goes into analyzing future events. Actuarial mathemat-
ics support insurance loss predictions and thus determine premiums. Astronomy
predicts the position of planets through past orbital observances. Most predictive
methods are imperfect to one degree or another, and all are subject to unfore-
seen influences. Likewise, looking forward in business, technology, and informa-
tion assurance has great benefits for planning and designing effective solutions.
Developing a viable framework in which to consider the future helps, but nothing
provides definite answers. Therefore, avoid analysis paralysis. Consider the infor-
mation at hand, separate fact from speculation, determine confidence level in facts,
identify constraints, clearly state assumptions, and go for it; an educated jump in
partial light beats a reflexive leap in the dark.
Time
Point of
Prediction
Figure 14.3
prediction uncertainty
oer time.
