Information Technology Reference
In-Depth Information
14.3
Future Vision
A serious discussion of the future touches
many aspects of higher thought, includ-
ing natural sciences, mathematical sci-
ences, psychology, and philosophy.
Consideration of the future as some-
thing humanity has control over is not
a globally accepted premise. The con-
cept of progress, that is, the universe,
the world, and humanity are actually
going somewhere, is largely a Western
thought. Many Eastern philosophies
are based on determinism or predestiny:
the outcome already exists, actions have no effect on consequences, and we merely
become aware of the outcome as it unfolds. The idea of control—or lack of it—over
one's own environment and destiny has profound psychological implications on
how people frame and address problems.
Controls over the future aside, most cultures do have an interest in predicting
the future, or at the least thinking about the future and what it may bring. The
challenge is to provide a process that avoids the more esoteric (Figure 14.1). The
FVF provides a rational, consistent, repeatable process to consider the future. The
narrative interweaves IA
2
applicability in the interest of producing IA architectures
that are extensible and agile to accommodate predictable as well as unpredictable
future needs of managing business risk. The FVF is not hard science, but is rather
a rational guide for focusing thought on the future.
Figure 14.1
iA diination.
14.3.1
General Bounds
Jay Forrest suggests that the future can be seen like a:
n
n
Train—Albeit with ups and downs, following a defined track
Glider—Some individual control, but the winds determine direction and dis-
tance with gravity dictating the inevitable
River raft—Some individual control from left to right bank but still within
confines of the banks
Sailboat—Individual control uses the winds to guide in generally a desired
direction, albeit with many tacks and tides causing delays and sidetracks
n
n
Paraphrase from
Systems Dynamics, Alternative Futures, and Scenarios
, p. 1.
