Geography Reference
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Fig. 14.8
Comparison of
population size and
subsistence level in Europe in
AD 1500-1800. (
a
)
Malthusian scenario, in which
population size and
subsistence level are purely
hypothetical. (
b
) Real world
situation. The
black line
represents population size (in
millions, corresponds to the
left Y-axis), while the
grey
line
denotes subsistence level
(corresponds to the right
Y- a x i s ) . T h e
grey
shaded area
represents a cold period with
the Northern Hemisphere
temperature anomaly below
0.5
ı
C (Color figure online)
and many other scholars) may not be true, at least in the pre-industrial era. The
upward trend of land carrying capacity is, in fact, characterized by shorter-term
recurring oscillations (ascending wave pattern) in accordance with the alternation
of cold and warm climate (Zhang et al.
2007a
; Lee et al.
2008
,
2009
; Lee and Zhang
2010
). On the other hand, in agrarian societies, population expands to the land
carrying capacity (demographic saturation), which reduces the natural buffering
capacity that would provide for societal resilience (e.g. tracts of non-cultivated
arable land) (Wood
1998
; Fagan
2000
). This renders the population vulnerable to
any shocks in food supplies. Such circumstances interact with the climate-induced
decline of land carrying capacity to produce human crises.
By examining the climate-crisis connection in Europe from AD 1500 to 1800,
we found that the subsistence level in Europe increased in an ascending but
oscillating manner, and its ups and downs matched closely with the alternation
of warm and cold climate (Fig.
14.8
b) (Zhang et al.
2011b
). We also discovered
that the subsistence level fluctuated more deeply than population size did, and
that agricultural shrinkage brought by cooling since the late sixteenth century
preceded the population collapse in the mid-seventeenth century. Such a sequential
relationship (or cause-and-effect relationship) further supports our studies.
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