Quantitative Analysis of Climate Change and Human Crises in History - Space-Time Integration in Geography and GIScience - page 246

Table 14.5 Regressions of the population growth rates in various climate zones on time and
Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies in AD 800-1900. Population growth and temperature
anomalies data have been smoothed by 100-year Butterworth low-pass filter prior to statistical
analysis. The regressions are corrected for autoregressive disturbances using the Prais-Winsten
estimation method. Elasticity can be interpreted as the percentage of population growth in response
to a one percent increase in temperature. t calendar year divided by 10 3 .R 2 adj D adjusted R 2 D

calculated for the untransformed variables
Independent variable

Dependent variable Constant t t 2 t 3 Temp Elasticity R 2 adj

N. Hemisphere 1.175 1.799*** 0.845*** 0.499*** 0.301 0.781

N. Hemisphere 0.087 0.209*** 0.516*** 0.312 0.611

N. Hemisphere 0.153 0.101*** 0.505*** 0.305 0.677

Warmer humid 0.606 0.516 0.325 0.833*** 0.288 0.561

Warmer humid 0.293 0.141** 0.838*** 0.290 0.468

Warmer humid 0.362 0.063** 0.832*** 0.288 0.507

Cooler humid 2.159 4.068*** 1.890*** 0.110* 0.063 0.783

Cooler humid 0.290 0.456*** 0.147** 0.084 0.609

Cooler humid 0.173 0.227*** 0.121* 0.069 0.682

Tropical humid 1.422 2.446*** 1.084*** 0.154*** 0.200 0.784

Tropical humid 0.051 0.222*** 0.176*** 0.229 0.579

Tropical humid 0.005 0.112*** 0.163*** 0.210 0.647

Dry 2.242 4.077*** 1.766*** 0.130** 0.083 0.606

Dry 0.214 0.328*** 0.168*** 0.107 0.407

0.160 0.169*** 0.147*** 0.093 0.470
*Significant at 0.05 level (2-tailed) ( P < 0.05); **Significant at 0.01 level (2-tailed) ( P < 0.01);
***Significant at 0.001 level (2-tailed) ( P < 0.001)

Dry

We found that all dynastic changes, 23 which result from nation-wide socio-political
chaos, occurred in cold phases (Table 14.6 )(Zhangetal. 2006 ). The only exception
was the collapse of Yuan Dynasty and the establishment of Ming Dynasty in AD
1368, which happened only 9 years after the end of the AD 1334-1359 cold phase
(Fig. 14.1 d and Table 14.6 ). Of the six cold phases, five experienced dynasty
collapse. It can be noted that the three long cold phases in the last millennium
(i.e., AD 1194-1302, 1583-1717, and 1806-1911) brought about the collapse of
the three longest dynasties: Song (c. AD 960-1279), Ming (c. AD 1368-1644), and
Qing (c. AD 1644-1911).

23 The times of dynastic changes were based on official records published by government bodies
and historians. The dynasties included those that ruled most parts of China, and those established
by remote tribes that once occupied an area equivalent to over ten provinces of the current Chinese
territory.