Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
infectious diseases linked to the rate of pathogen replication will all be en-
hanced. Malaria mosquitoes have recently been observed at high altitudes
in the region (Eriksson et al., 2008).
Endemic morbidity and mortality due todiarrheal disease associated
with floods and droughts are expected to rise in East, South and South-east
Asia due to projected changes in the hydrological cycle (IPCC, 2007a).
This will be in addition to an already very high global burden of climate
change attributablediarrhea. Empirical studies project that the population
at risk of dengue fever will be larger in India and China. In these countries,
a high increase in mortality due to heat stress is also projected. However,
there are also expected to be positive climate change induced effects on
the health status of certain populations in the Himalayan region. High al-
titude areas will open up to new types of agricultural production and new
livelihood opportunities, people will find their homes and villages more
comfortabledue to less cold conditions and the risks associated with cold
and respiratory diseases will be reduced as the use of fuel wood for heat-
ing is reduced.
19.10.4 MOUNTAIN INFRASTRUCTURE
Valuable infrastructure, such as hydropower plants, roads, bridges and
communication systems will be increasingly at risk from climate change.
Entire hydropower generation systems established on many rivers will be
in jeopardy if landslides and flash floods increase, and hydropower gen-
eration will be affected if there is a decrease in the already low flows dur-
ing the dry season. Engineers will have to consider how to respond to these
challenges (OECD, 2003).
A specific hazard related to glacier retreat is the formation of progla-
cial lakes and in some cases the events of glacial lake outburst floods
(GLOFs). These can have a devastating effect on important and vulner-
able infrastructure downstream such as hydropower stations. Equally im-
portant, the operations of hydroelectric power stations will become more
complex. With climate change, the complexity and variability of river flow
generation will both rise (Renoj et al., 2007) and become increasingly dif-
ficult to predict. For example, although the annual average proportion of
melt water in river flow has been estimated at 13% for rivers flowing to
the Ganges from Nepal, from March through May the monthly average
