Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
Retreat in glaciers can destabilize surrounding slopes and may give
rise to catastrophic landslides (Ballantyne and Benn, 1994; Dadson and
Church, 2005) which can dam streams and sometimes lead to outbreak
floods. Excessive melt waters, often in combination with liquid precipita-
tion, may trigger flash floods or debris flows. In the Karakoram, there is
growing evidence that catastrophic rockslides have a substantial influence
on glaciers and may have triggered glacial surges (Hewitt, 2005).
19.10 CONSEQUENCES FOR LIVELIHOODS AND THE
ENVIRONMENT
19.10.1 PASTURES AND AGRICULTURE
The location and area of natural vegetation zones on the Tibetan Plateau
will change substantially under projected climate change scenarios. Areas
of temperate grassland and cold temperate Coniferous forest could ex-
pand, while temperate and cold deserts may shrink. The vertical distribu-
tion of vegetation zones could move to higher altitude. Climate change
may also result in a shift of the boundary of the farming-pastoral transition
region to the south in North-east China, whichmay increase grassland ar-
eas and provide more favorable conditions for livestock production. How-
ever, the transition area of the farming-pastoral region is also an area of
potential desertification, and if protection measures are not taken in new
transition areas, desertification may occur (Li and Zhou, 2001; Qiu et al.,
2001). More frequent and prolonged droughts as a consequence of climate
change together with other anthropogenic factors may also result in de-
sertification.
There is significant uncertainty about the effects of global warming
on the vegetation and animal productivity of large dryland ecosystems.
Although high altitude drylands might enjoy increases in net primary pro-
ductivity (NPP), locally, the greatest confidence is in predicting implica-
tions for vegetation production, with lesser confidence in implications
for vegetation composition, animal production, and adaptation options
(Campbell and Stafford Smith, 2000). Climate change has been reported
to impact on grassland productivity, ecosystems, and the distribution and
composition of plant communities (Wilkes, 2008). Some rangelands might
suffer from degradation due to the warmer and drier climate (Dirnbock et
