Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
dependence on their own production to cover food requirements, it
may not be possible to offset declines in local supply without in-
creasing reliance on food aid.
• Impacts on all forms of agricultural production will affect liveli-
hoods and access to food. Producer groups that are less able to deal
with climate change, such as the rural poor in developing countries,
risk having their safety and welfare compromised.
Other food system processes, such as food processing, distribution,
acquisition, preparation and consumption, are as important for food secu-
rity as food and agricultural production. Technological advances and the
development of long-distance marketing chains that move produce and
packaged foods throughout the world at high speed and relatively low cost
have made overall food system performance far less dependent on climate
than it was 200 years ago. However, as the frequency and intensity of se-
vere weather increase, there is a growing risk of storm damage to transport
and distribution infrastructure, with consequent disruption of food supply
chains. The rising cost of energy and the need to reduce fossil fuel usage
along the food chain have led to a new calculus - “food miles,”which
should be kept as low as possible to reduce emissions. These factors could
result in more local responsibility for food security, which needs to be con-
sidered in the formulation of adaptation strategies for people who are cur-
rently vulnerable or who could become so within the foreseeable future.
19.3 POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOOD
AVAILABILITY
Productionof food and other agricultural commodities may keep pace with
aggregate demand, but there are likely to be significant changes in local
cropping patterns and farming practices. There has been a lot of research
on the impacts that climate change might have on agricultural production,
particularly cultivated crops. Some 50% of total crop production comes
from forest and mountain ecosystems, including all tree crops, while crops
cultivated on open, arable flat land account for only 13% of annual global
crop production. Production from both rainfed and irrigated agriculture in
dry land ecosystems accounts for approximately 25%, and rice produced
in coastal ecosystems for about 12% (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment,
2005).
