Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
ing of institutional systems (Adger et al., 2003). Such processes, besides
building the resilience of communities, regions and countries to all shocks
and stresses, including climate variability and change, are good develop-
ment practice in themselves. Hence the inclusion of climatic risks in the
design and implementation of development initiatives is vital to reduce
vulnerability and enhance sustainability.
13.3
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE CURRENT SCENARIO
Global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 mm per year over
1961 to 2003. This rate was faster over 1993 to 2003, about 3.1 mm per
year. Analyzes done by the Indian Meteorology Department and the In-
dian Institute of Tropical Meteorology generally show the same trends for
temperature, heat waves, glaciers, droughts and floods, and sea level rise
as by the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of United
Nations. Magnitude of the change varies in some cases. There are evi-
dences that glaciers in Himalayas are receding. The rainfall is also likely
to become more uncertain. The projected global, mean annual temperature
increase by the end of this century is likely to be in the range 2 to 4.5 °C.
Values substantially higher than 4.5 °C cannot be excluded. For south Asia
(Indian region), the IPCC has projected 0.5 to 1.2 °C rise in temperature
by 2020, 0.88 to 3.16 °C by 2050 and 1.56 to 5.44 °C by 2080, depending
on the scenario of future development
(
T
able 13.1;
IPCC 2007b). Overall,
the temperature increases are likely to be much higher in winter (rabi)
season than in rainy season (kharif). Precipitation is likely to increase in
all time slices in all months, except during December-February when it
is likely to decrease. It is likely that future tropical cyclones will become
more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and heavier precipitation.
Himalayan glaciers and snow cover are projected to contract. It is very
likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will
continue to become more frequent. For the next two decades, a warming
of about 0.2 °C per decade is projected. Even if all future emissions were
stopped now, a further warming of about 0.1 °C per decade would be ex-
pected. The projected sea level rise by the end of this century is likely to
be 0.18 to 0.59 meters.
Projected changes in surface air temperature and precipitation for
South Asia under SRES A1FI (highest future emission trajectory) and B1
