Information Technology Reference
In-Depth Information
software packages with new features. We regularly hear about ex
perimental products that perform impressively well on small collec
tions of data and extremely well in situations where options are lim
ited. Various reports and claims then suggest that before long the
products will work in more extensive circumstances. Soon the re
ports have us believing that new computers can process much more
data and solve many new problems based on major advances in
technology.
Such reports and claims abound, with new ones appearing regu
larly, and we need to greet each of them with some skepticism. It
may indeed be true that new technology represents a breakthrough,
or that some promising research will lead to remarkable new prod
ucts fairly soon; however, recent history also demonstrates that
many reports are wildly optimistic. New work may include a mod
est step forward (or maybe not), but a small adjustment of previous
technology rarely should be considered a breakthrough. We also
must be aware that marketers want to present products in ways to
maximize sales, and researchers are searching for additional fund
ing. Therefore, we need to weed through overestimates and exagger
ations to discover the true degree to which new developments will
impact the world of computing. This chapter will explore some
common questions that will help you critically evaluate claims and
reports before accepting them.
Computer technology has progressed at a remarkably fast and
sustained pace for decades. For example, the size of computer mem
ory chips has doubled about every 18 months since 1965 or so.
Back in 1965, Gordon Moore, a cofounder of Intel and then chair
man of its board of directors, observed that the industry was devel
oping a new generation of computer chips every three years or so,
and the number of transistors on chips increased by a factor of four
with each generation. A fourfold increase in 3 years corresponds to
a doubling in about 18 months. Although originally just an obser
vation, this rate of increase has continued with remarkable consis
tency in the ensuing years, and this ongoing rate of advancement for
chip technology is now called
Moore's Law
.
Because Moore's Law is based only on observation, it is not a
scientific law at all. However, the capacity of transistors within
