Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
(4.1)
where
j
is the index for the subperiods (
j
=1,…,
n
) and
n
is the number of subperiods.
Figure 4.1.
Average and disaggregated time series input.
For the sake of simplicity coefficients
b
j
are introduced, such that
w
j
=
Wb
j
(4.2)
where
(4.3)
The coefficients
b
j
are generated randomly subject to the constraints (4.3). The Equations
(4.2) and (4.3) allow the quantity
w
j
to take any value from 0 to
W
. An unbiased random
generation of
b
j
provides all possible combinations of disaggregated signals, also referred
to as the temporal patterns of the variable. The various disaggregated signals (temporal
patterns) are then used as inputs to the model function (Eq. (4.4)) to assess the
uncertainty in the output,
y,
using either a probabilistic or a fuzzy approach.
y
=
f
(
w
j
; j
=1,…,
n
)
(4.4)
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