INTRODUCTION - Modelling Uncertainty in Flood Forecasting Systems - page 4

inadequate due to a range of consequences (see, for example, Goodwin and Hardy, 1999;
Grijsen et al., 1992; Rosenthal et al, 1998). It is relevant here to quote from the “Life on the
Mississippi” (Chapter 28) by Mark Twain that describes the undefeated power of a natural river:
“…that ten thousand River Commissions, with the mines of the world at their
back, cannot tame that lawless stream, cannot curb it or confine it, cannot
sayit, Go here, or Go there, and make it obey; cannot save a shore which it has
sentenced; cannot bar its path with an obstruction which it will not tear down,
dance over, and laugh at.”
The alternative is therefore to manage the flood rather than to fight against it. Flood man-
agement covers every aspect of flood mitigation and control measures (both structural and
non-structural) at the pre-crisis and post-crisis stages as well as during the crisis. It also
covers acquisition and application of information, reaction of people, political and
social consequences and influences on decision making. Various means of flood hazard
mitigation are described in Subsection 1.2.1, and a non-structural strategy called a Flood
Forecasting, Warning and Response System (FFWRS) is presented in Subsection 1.2.2.
1.2.1 Alternative strategies of flood alleviation
A useful summary of various measures of flood alleviation that have been identified and
applied in various flood mitigation schemes is listed in Figure 1.2. These measures are the
result of research and development over many decades and even centuries (Penning-Rowsell and
Peerbolte, 1994). They are categorised, conventionally, as either structural or non-structural.
They can also be looked at as measures of water control, of land use control and of financial
relief and loss reduction. Note that the same alternative may serve for two or more measures.
Figure 1.2 also substantiates the conclusion that floods are not just a physical phenom-
ena: they are the result of our decisions to use the areas liable to flooding, and their impacts can
be modified by the way in which we deploy the financial resources of our individuals and
the state (Penning-Rowsell and Peerbolte, 1994). The subject of the present study looks at
a component of a FFWRS, which is a non-structural and primarily a loss reduction measure.