Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
requirement to strengthen infrastructure on handling and transportation of
vegetables from this region to other part of the country.
4.5 POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON
HORTICULTURAL CROPS
Horticultural crops play important role in ecologically sensitive hilly,
coastal, rainfed and dry land area. Climate change has some impact on
horticultural crops due to erratic rainfall, general warming and enhanced
biotic and abiotic stresses. The IPCC has projected a temperature increase
of 0.5 to 1.2°C rise in temperature by 2020, 0.88 to 3.16°C by 2050 and
1.56 to 5.44°C by 2080, depending on the scenario of future development
in the Indian region. Apart from increase in temperature, climate change is
projected to cause variations in rainfall, increase the frequency of extreme
events such as heat, cold waves, frost days, droughts, floods, etc. Various
plant processes like vegetative growth, flowering, fruiting and fruit quality
are highly vulnerable to climate changes. The different fruit species with
varying levels of adaptabilities to varying climatic conditions will also be
influenced by effects of climate change. In case of citrus, under the situ-
ation of rise in temperature, it is expected that crops will develop more
rapidly and mature earlier. In case of grapes, prolongation of the grow-
ing period and weak accumulation of sugars have been recorded due to
total warming during the summer period. In mango, increases in tempera-
ture during December to March under north Indian conditions have been
predicted to impair flower bud differentiation and fruit set. A comparison
between rainfall pattern of current and predicted future climate (2030-
2.050) indicated that in Dashehari growing areas, precipitation is likely
to increase with major changes during May to October; especially rains
during fruit bud differentiation are likely to adversely impact the process.
Further, frequent rains occurring during May-June also may delay fruit
maturity, reduce fruit quality and adversely impact postharvest life. In case
of banana, it is expected that the areas favorable for the development of
the Black Sigatoka disease will decrease under climate change scenario. In
apple, significant decrease in average productivity in Kullu and Simla dis-
tricts of Himachal Pradesh has been recorded which is attributed mainly to
inadequate chilling required for fruit formation and growth. Reduction in
cumulative chill units of coldest months might have caused shift of apple
