Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
2.1 INTRODUCTION
Global and regional models have been used for producing climate change
scenarios with a special focus on the behavior (frequency and intensity) of
extreme events like heat waves, cold spells, severe thunder storms, tropi-
cal cyclones, storm surges, severe storms, drought, etc. Extensive observa-
tional data over the past century and also the reconstructed data have been
used in climatic change assessment. Better forecasting capability is central
to an effective adaptation strategy, particularly in the Indian context where
livelihoods are strongly related to the physical environment.
India is one of the world's most vulnerable countries to climate change.
It is vulnerable to sea level rise and extreme weather events, and will in-
creasingly face threats to human health, water availability, and food secu-
rity. Additionally, about 12 percent (40 million hectares) of India is flood
prone, while 16 percent (51 million hectares) is drought prone. Thus India
is also vulnerable to potential climate change-induced shifts in precipita-
tion patterns.
In India, climate/environment related observations are being taken,
both on regular and campaign mode by various Central and State Gov-
ernment Departments, Universities, research institutions and some non-
governmental agencies. Efforts are required to bring all these sources of
climate system related observations into a single national network for use
by research community and climate service delivery.
2.2
OBSERVED TREND IN CLIMATIC EXTREMES
2.2.1 EXTREME RAINFALL EVENTS
Based on rainfall data during 1901-2005, annual normal rainy days varied
from 10 over extreme western parts of Rajasthan to the high frequency of
130 days over northeastern parts of the country (IMD NCCRR, 3/2010).
Both nonparametric test and linear trend analysis identified decreasing
trends in the frequency of wet days in most parts of the country. Trend anal-
ysis of frequency of rainy days and heavy rainfall days shows significant
decreasing trends over central and many parts of north India and increas-
ing trends over peninsular India. Also the great desert areas of the country
have experienced increase in number of wet days. One-day extreme
