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i b ( t )+ i g ( t )+ i n ( t )+ s ( t )= s (0) + I 0 .
At the stopping time, s ( t s )= i g ( t s ), and i g ( t s ) >i n ( t s ), whence
i b ( t s )+3 i g ( t s ) >s (0) + I 0 .
It follows that i b ( t s )+ i g ( t s ) > (1 / 3)( s (0) + I 0 ).
We see that under the theorem's assumptions, the capabilities nullifying de-
fensives have over spreading-patch defenses (suppress an infected host's scans,
stop the “good worm” scanning) serve to give it greater power, but the peak num-
ber of hosts scanning (both worm and counter-worm) is still at least one third
of the initial susceptible population. It should be noted that this result depends
signficantly on an assumption that the counter-worm's scan rate is identical to
the worm's. We are exploring the consequences of relaxing this assumption, as
well as pushing on looking for ways of countering worms with increasing power,
while reducing the impact on the network.
5
Conclusions
This paper studies active defenses against Internet worms. We use discrete and
continuous mathematical models to study a hierarchy of worm fighting capabil-
ities. We are able to prove a number of results about these models, including
- strong stochastic ordering of infection counts in a hierarchy of five defense
types;
- that a simple counter-worm defense has a stochastically larger aggregate
scanning intensity than does the unfettered worm;
- that by starting a defense with enough outside hosts scanning to implant
counter-worms, any desired fraction of the remaining susceptible hosts can
be protected from a worm;
- that by starting a nullifying defense with few enough outside hosts, the peak
scanning intensity is less than the unfettered worm;
- even when peak scanning time is minimized under the nullifying defense, it
is still the case that the peak number of hosts scanning is at least 1/3 of the
total number of susceptibles;
There is much work yet to be done. This paper does not address the very
significant problem of quickly and automatically detecting when a worm attack
has been launched—we have looked only at the relative effectiveness of measures
put into place after the detection. Our experiments of effectiveness of defense as
a function of response time (Figure 1) show that rapid detection is absolutely
critical.
Acknowledgements
This research was supported under Award number 2000-DT-CX-K001 from the
U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Science and Technology Directorate.
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