what-when-how
In Depth Tutorials and Information
In many cases, in order to achieve changes in the physical domain, policy-driven
strategic alternatives need to be considered. hese strategic alternatives may rely
on incentives or disincentives such as taxes, subsidies, voluntary agreements, and
restrictions on certain behaviors. Implicit in these types of alternatives is usually
an assumption about how a policy change, initiated by actors on the institutional
sphere, will cascade through the physical domain, and what changes in the perfor-
mance measure will occur. Following this process can also reveal where strategic
alternatives of this kind are counterproductive, diminishing the performance in
other parts of the system.
2.2.3.5.2.3 CLIOS Step 8: Flag Important Areas of Uncertainty —
A
parallel activity to the identification of strategic alternatives for CLIOS system
performance improvements is uncertainty analysis. In addition to internal and
external risks that can be identified in a risk-management framework, there are
additional uncertainties that deal with our lack of understanding of the system
due to its emergent behaviors. In identifying key uncertainties, one can rely on
the insights gained in Stage 1 and Step 6, in which we looked for chains of
strong interactions, areas of conflict between stakeholders, or emergent behavior
resulting from feedback loops. A promising qualitative methodology for identify-
ing key uncertainties and understanding their impact on the CLIOS system is
Scenario Planning as developed by Royal Dutch/Shell in the years leading up to
the oil shocks of the 1970s (Schwartz, 1996). Quantitative approaches such as
probabilistic risk assessment and event tree analysis are of value as well in this
step of the CLIOS process. Another way of approaching uncertainty is exempli-
ied by real options used to value flexibility and flexible strategic alternatives.
McConnell (2007) describes ways that life-cycle flexibility can be integrated into
the CLIOS Process.
2.2.3.5.2.4 CLIOS Step 9: Evaluate Strategic Alternatives and “Bundles” —
In this step, the individual strategic alternatives that were generated in Step 7 are
evaluated using the models developed in Step 6 or additional models if need be. Also,
we can return here to the insights gained in Stage 1. Usually, each alternative is exam-
ined with regard to how it impacts the CLIOS system, especially for the performance
areas that it was designed for. he use of
trade-ofanalysis
is an alternative approach
that allows comparison of strategic alternatives across difference performance mea-
sures. A large number of alternatives can be compared in this manner, and there is no
need to reduce performance measures to a single measure.
Given system complexity, it would be unusual if a single strategic alternative
could be deployed and meet CLIOS system goals. However, by combining strate-
gic alternatives into bundles or packages, the analyst may accomplish two objec-
tives. First, one can mitigate and/or compensate for negative impacts. Given the
interconnectedness of the CLIOS system, improvements along one dimension of
performance may degrade performance in other areas of the system.
