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directionality of influence and feedback loops, as well as the magnitude of influ-
ence (big/important or small/marginal impacts on the adjoining components)
(Mostashari and Sussman, 2009).
In thinking about the linkages, a key aspect of the CLIOS system representa-
tion is to develop a framework for thinking about and describing the links in the
system. We identify here three classes of links:
◾
Class 1: Links between components in a subsystem
◾
Class 2: Links between components in a subsystem and actors on the institu-
tional sphere (also called “projections”)
◾
Class 3: Links between actors on the institutional sphere
here are different approaches appropriate to each class of links. Generally, the
links within the physical domain (Class 1) can be analyzed using engineering-
and microeconomics-based methods, and will often be quantifiable. Regarding the
links from the institutional sphere to the physical subsystems (Class 2 or projec-
tions), quantitative analysis is less useful since human agency and organizational
and stakeholders' interests come into play as they attempt to induce changes in the
physical domain. Finally, there are the interactions that take place within the insti-
tutional sphere itself (Class 3). Understanding this class of links requires methods
drawing upon theories of organizations, institutions, politics, and policy. According
to Karl Popper (1972), “obviously what we want is to understand how such non-
physical things as
purposes, deliberations, plans, decisions, theories, intentions
and
values
, can play a part in bringing about physical changes in the physical world”
(cited in Almond and Genco (1977), emphasis in original).
2.2.3.5.1.6 CLIOS Step 5: Transition from Descriptive to Prescriptive
Treatment of System —
Once the general structure of the CLIOS system has
been established, and the behavior of individual components, actors, and links
has been relatively well characterized, we can use this information to gain a better
understanding of the overall system behavior and, where possible, counterintuitive
or emergent system behavior by asking the following types of leading questions
(Mostashari and Sussman, 2009).
First, with respect to the physical layers (Class 1 links), are there strong interac-
tions within or between subsystems? Are there chains of links with fast-moving,
high-influence interactions? Are some of the paths of links strongly nonlinear and/
or irreversible in their impact? Finally, can strong positive or negative feedback
loops be identified?
Second, looking at the links between the institutional sphere and the physical
subsystems (Class 2 links or projections), can we identify components within the
physical domains that are influenced by many different organizations in the insti-
tutional sphere? If so, are the organizations pushing the system in the same direc-
tion, or is there competition among organizations in the direction of influence?
