what-when-how
In Depth Tutorials and Information
Experts use models to predict values of some variables based on values of other
variables. A model is based on assumptions about the initial state of a system (data),
its structure, the processes that govern it, and its output. Any of these assumptions
has inherent uncertainties that can afect the results that the model produces. he
parameters and initial conditions of a model can often be more important than
the relationships that govern the model in terms of the impact on the output. he
“Limits to Growth” Models of the 1970s show how long-range models are not
capable of characterizing long-term interactions between the economy, society, and
the environment in a sociotechnical system. Additionally, individual and institu-
tional choices can make socioeconomic models inherently unpredictable (Land and
Schneider 1987).
In real life, uncertainties cannot be reduced indefinitely, and the reduction of
uncertainty is associated with costs. herefore, an acceptable level of uncertainty
for decision making has to be determined subjectively. he subjective nature of
such a determination is one of the main rationales for stakeholder participation in
decision making.
Risk is the combination of the concepts probability (the likelihood of an out-
come) and severity (the impact of an outcome). In fact, acceptable levels of uncer-
tainty in the analysis of a system depend on acceptable levels of risk associated with
that system. he concept of acceptable risk is essentially a subjective, value-based
decision. While there are methodologies, such as probabilistic risk assessment,
that try to provide an objective assessment of risk, it is the perception of the risk-
bearing individuals, organizations, or communities that determine how much risk
is acceptable. While many experts focus on providing the public with probabilities
of possible outcomes for a system, Sjöberg (1994) indicates that the public is more
concerned with the severity than with the probability. Allan Mazur (1981) empha-
sizes the role of the media in affecting risk perceptions for people. He argues that
the more people see or hear about the risks of a technology, for example, the more
concerned they will become. his efect could occur both for negative coverage as
well as positive coverage.
1.4 DimensionsofSociotechnicalSystems
A sociotechnical system is defined through four main aspects: Its (manmade)
structure and artifacts (technology, architecture, protocols, components, links,
boundaries, internal complexity), its dynamics and behavior (emergence, nonlinear
interactions, feedback loops), and its actors/agents (conscious entities that affect
or are affected by the system's intended or unintended effects on its environment).
Finally, the environment it operates in also defines a sociotechnical system. Here,
environment refers to the social, cultural, political, economic, and legal context
within which the system is operating (Mostashari, 2009).
