Evolution in Broadband Technology and Future of Wireless Broadband - Adoption, Usage, and Global Impact of Broadband Technologies - page 230

Korea and Italy whereas United States and
United Kingdom have just reached that cross over
point in 2008.

Ethernet and Power lines. On the other hand, the
trend for number of mobile subscribers in the
three countries is experiencing a very rapid year
over year growth. This phenomenon is displayed
in Figure 8 to 10.
Based on such rapid growth in mobile BB
adoption, we can expect that mobile BB technol-
ogy will play an important role as BB access
technology and will enhance the scope of innova-
tion and adoption of many new applications. To
see this future trend of mobile BB diffusion, we
developed a simple time series forecasting
model and estimate the model using the data for
Japan, USA and Korea to predict the future be-
havior for fixed versus mobile BB subscribers..
More specifically, based on the available time
series (2002 - 2007) for fixed and mobile sub-
scribers, we choose an appropriate forecast trajec-
tory using smoothing splines to predict future
trend in subscription for these three countries.
The Actual and forecasted results are displayed
in Figure 11 to 13 with forecast period ranging
from 2009 to 2013.

TREND IN SUBSCRIPTIONS
OF VARIOUS BB PLATFORMS
AND FUTURE FORECASTS

In this section, we analyze the observed trend in
subscriber's behavior for various BB platforms
for selected countries and predict the future trend
in such behavior. Due to limitation of time series
data, we select 3 countries for detail analysis.
These countries are USA, Japan and Korea. It is
clear from the Table 8 that the observed growth
rate of total fixed BB subscribers in USA is rela-
tively higher in comparison to Japan and Korea.
If we analyze the composition of subscribers, we
find that in all 3 countries, the share of subscrib-
ers in “other Technology” category has increased
whereas that for DSL and cable technology has
declined over the last few years. Here “other
technology” includes satellite, Fiber cable, LAN,

Figure 8. USA subscription for fixed bb (t) cable modem (c), DSL (d), and wireless BB (w)